Circuit-breaker lockdown: What would it look like and how long would it last?

Experts have warned the government that more measures are needed to avoid an increase in hospitalisations

The UK has seen a sharp rise in cases of Covid-19 since late November 2022 and, with the arrival of the Omicron variant, the government has been forced to reassess its current guidelines.

“Plan B” measures were introduced from Friday 10 December onwards, including advice to work from home and making face coverings mandatory in public indoor venues such as shops, cinemas, theatres and places of worship.

The vaccine booster programme was also accelerated, with 750 armed forces personnel drafted in to support the roll-out.

However, after a few days of record-breaking daily case numbers, experts have warned the government that more measures are needed to avoid an increase in hospitalisations.

In London, city mayor Sadiq Khan declared a major incident over the surge in Omicron cases in the capital.

Leaked minutes from a meeting of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) in December had advised the introduction of stricter measures to stop hospital admissions reaching 3,000 per day.

Reports suggested officials were drawing up plans for the implementation of a circuit-breaker lockdown to combat the alarming rise in cases. But what would that look like?

The Financial Times reported that prime minister Boris Johnson was presented with a range of options under a so-called “Plan C”, ranging from “mild guidance to nudge people, right through to lockdown”.

The BBC reported experts had recommended moving to restrictions seen in steps one and two of easing lockdown restrictions earlier this year. This would mean banning indoor mixing and indoor hospitality.

It has also reportedly been proposed that the lockdown would last for two weeks and would start immediately after Christmas. Potentially, this means that the UK could go into a two-week circuit-breaker starting at some point between 27 and 30 December.

In Wales, first minister Mark Drakeford has announced further restrictions including the closure of nightclubs from 27 December.

In leaked minutes seen by the BBC, the Sage experts also warned against delaying further interventions until 2022.

The Times meanwhile reported that draft regulations were being prepared that could ban meeting others indoors other than for work purposes and that pubs and restaurants would be limited to outdoor service-only for two weeks after Christmas.

Professor Stephen Reicher, a member of Sage, previously told Times Radio that “all the science suggests that (Plan B is) not going to be enough”.

He continued: “The only way really, or at least the most effective way, we can have an immediate effect is to decrease the number of contacts we have.

“In many ways, the most effective way of diminishing contact is to have a circuit-breaker.

“Now, you could have it after Christmas, the problem is after Christmas it’s probably too late, it’s probably by then we will have had a huge surge of infections with all the impact upon society.

“When people say ‘look, we don’t want to close down’, of course, we don’t want to close down. But the problem is at the moment, things are closing down anyway, because of the spread of infection.

“So I think we need to act now.”

Lord Victor Adebowale, chairman of the NHS Confederation, supported a proposed circuit-breaker lockdown, telling the same radio station: “I would support the circuit-breaker. My members would support the circuit-breaker.

“We’ve been calling for Plan B for some time now and we’re glad that it was voted through. I think the government has to be prepared to recall Parliament if further interventions are needed.”

He added: “The fact of the matter is we should be taking the precautionary principle. We should be protecting our NHS and our public services. We have no economy without health.”