Kyoto Summit: Is the Government's target for greenhouse gas just so much hot air?

The Government says Britain will cut its carbon dioxide pollution by 20 per cent by 2010. In the first of a two-part series, Nicholas Schoon asks if ministers are serious about this target - and, if so, how can it be reached? It was there in black and white in the party's manifesto, and has been repeated since the election by Tony Blair. Britain will cut its annual emissions of the main greenhouse gas to 80 per cent of its 1990 level over the next dozen years.

It remains to be seen if this target survives very long after the rest of the developed world signs up in Kyoto to far more modest cuts on Wednesday. But the fact is that Britain could do it, and lead the world in tackling climate change.

It would change the life of every family and the workings of most businesses over the next 10 years. Wind turbines would become as common as high- tension pylons.

We would have a cleaner country, since other kinds of pollution would reduce sharply, and a more efficient one. Our cities might be a little more densely packed, and our economy would continue to grow. In fact, it might make Britain rather more like Japan.

UK emissions have fallen by 5 per cent since 1990, due mainly to changes in the way we generate electricity. The proportion which comes from burning coal has fallen drastically. The share of burning natural gas, a fuel which produces less than half the carbon dioxide that coal does for each unit of electricity, has risen. So has that from nuclear power which produces virtually no carbon dioxide. But no new nuclear power stations are planned and its share will soon start falling. Emissions could be cut further if gas assumes a bigger share of electricity generation, but last week Mr Blair stepped on the brake to try to help the coal industry.

The trend is for emissions to rise with economic growth. As Britons get wealthier they want to fly more, drive more, buy more power-hungry gadgets. Without new policies, UK emissions will be 2 per cent higher in 2010 than in 1990, says the Energy Technology Support Unit (ETSU), the Government's leading energy advisers.

Falling gas and electricity bills are encouraging people to consume more energy. Only petrol and diesel prices are bucking the trend because the Government is committed to raising road fuel duties above the rate of inflation.

"The next steps are altogether more difficult," said Dr Jim Skea, director of the Economic and Social Research Council's global environmental change programme. "We need a transport, energy, fiscal and technology policy that reflects climate concerns."

Most experts agree that to hit the target there would have to be higher household and industrial energy taxes - something the Government is loathe to contemplate. Some of the money those taxes raise will have to be redirected into energy-saving incentives. Simply taxing fuel more "has little chance of success", says Dr David Carless, of ETSU, "and every chance of creating large areas of resentment".

l Tomorrow: What the target will mean for our homes, transport, power generation and towns.