Rishi Sunak and the Tories have a political mountain to climb – and the path is perilous

Conservative strategists believe Labour’s poll lead is soft, writes Andrew Grice, but Keir Starmer is proving hard to demonise, and that leaves a tough road ahead as the country moves towards a 2024 general election

Labour and Starmer enjoy a 20-point poll lead over Sunak and the Tories (PA)

In 2019, the Conservatives had three assets in what some called the “BBC election”: Boris, Brexit and Corbyn. But when the party seeks an unprecedented fifth term next year, none of these factors are likely to be in play.

Although Boris Johnson does not stop his fan club talking up a spectacular return, it is highly unlikely to actually come to pass. While the Tories will try to make Brexit an issue, Keir Starmer has an insurance policy; the exiled Jeremy Corbyn won’t even be a Labour candidate, let alone the party’s leader.

How can the Tories compensate for the loss of their three 2019 aces? Elections usually boil down to “time for change” versus “let us finish the job; don’t let the other lot ruin it”. As long ago as 1959, the Tories won re-election with the slogan: “Life’s better with the Conservatives. Don’t let Labour ruin it.” In 1987, Margaret Thatcher won a third term with: “Britain is great again. Don’t let Labour wreck it.” In 1997, John Major failed with: “Britain is booming. Don’t let Labour blow it.” But slogans can’t defy political gravity.