Climate change 'to devastate penguin populations in Antarctica by up to 60 per cent by the end of the century'

Numbers of the birdsplummeting in areas where global warming has had most impact

Rising sea surface temperatures mean Adélie penguins have difficulty rearing chicks

The penguin population in Antarctica is facing huge losses because of climate change, a new report has warned.

Colonies of Adélie penguins, which only exist in Antarctica, could be reduced by nearly two-thirds by the end of the century, according to the research.

Warming sea surface temperatures causing conditions penguins cannot rear chicks in is most likely to be the cause, scientists claimed in a study published in the journal Scientific Reports.

While penguins cannot thrive where it is too cold, excessive warmth is also harmful to the species.

"It is only in recent decades that we know Adélie penguins population declines are associated with warming, which suggests that many regions of Antarctica have warmed too much and that further warming is no longer positive for the species," said lead author Dr Megan Cimino.

Colonies of Adélie penguins are in decline across the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) – which is also one of the most rapidly warming places on Earth. The region has had the most years with warmer than normal sea surface temperatures, known as "novel climate", and penguin populations have declined by around 80 per cent, according to Dr Cimino, who has worked extensively in the region.

“These two things seem to be happening in the WAP at a higher rate than in other areas during the same time period,” Dr Cimino said.

Climate models have also predicted this area will continue to experience the greatest frequency of novel climate this century, presenting a further threat to penguins.

The researchers drew on a diverse range of satellite data (penguin colonies can now be identified from space) and global climate model projections for their study. They concluded with a prediction that across Antarctica, 30 per cent of current Adélie colonies could be gone by 2060. By 2099, the number could be as high as 60 per cent.

However, the research also found that in places where climate change is less rapid, Adélie numbers are “steady or increasing”.

These locations are likely to become refugia – a place where an isolated population that was previously widespread survives. One such area is Cape Adare, a peninsula in the East Antarctic, where climatic changes have been less dramatic.

“The Cape Adare region of the Ross Sea is home to the earliest known penguin occupation and has the largest known Adélie penguin rookery in the world,” Dr Cimino said.

“Though the climate there is expected to warm a bit, it looks like it could be a refugium in the future, and if you look back over geologic time it was likely one in the past.”

The patterns of climate change led the scientists to predict the surviving Antarctic penguin population will be concentrated in the south over the coming 100 years.