Brexit: UK-EU deal on protocol expected ‘within fortnight’

Rishi Sunak faces uphill battle to win over DUP and Tory Brexiteers, as negotiations enter final phase

A Brexit deal between the UK and EU to end the long-running Northern Ireland Protocol row is set to be announced within a fortnight, according to reports.

The two sides are understood to be very close to deal to ease routine checks on goods moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

UK negotiators have conceded that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) will remain the ultimate arbiter of protocol disputes – though there will be a stronger role for Northern Irish courts, according to The Telegraph.

The newspaper said Rishi Sunak will hold calls with EU leaders about an agreement later this week, with the date for a possible deal announcement pencilled in for as soon as next week by UK negotiators.

However, Mr Sunak is yet to sign off on a deal and he faces an uphill battle to win over the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Tory hardliners in the European Research Group (ERG).

The unionists and Tory Brexiteers remain opposed to a compromise that leaves the protocol in place, and are staunchly against the idea of European judges having any say in Northern Ireland.

ERG deputy chair David Jones MP told The Independent earlier this month that a Commons vote would be necessary – opening up the prospect of a return to the big parliamentary battles seen in the run-up to Brexit.

“There would probably need to be a vote in the House of Commons. It is something parliament should opine on,” said Mr Jones – who said he expects widespread opposition from the Tory MPs to any compromise that maintains separate rules for Britain and Northern Ireland.

However, it remains unclear whether a vote will be necessary. Mujtaba Rahman, a Brexit analyst at the Eurasia Group, said a deal could be forged without redrafting existing legal texts, through a separate document agreeing on how to interpret the protocol.

A technical agreement on customs and food and animal health checks is thought to be all but done, based on UK proposals for “green” and “red” lanes.

The system would allow goods to flow unimpeded from Britain to Northern Ireland, while goods set for export to the Republic of Ireland would still be checked in Northern Irish ports.

But the most sensitive area of the deal remains the role of European judges. While reports suggests the UK has conceded that the ECJ remains the arbiter of protocol disputes, No 10 is likely to want to emphasis a greater role for Northern Irish courts in the vast majority of cases.

Two former senior Tory figures in the ERG, Chris Heaton-Harris and Steve Baker, are now at the Northern Ireland Office working towards a deal.

But their old allies remain unhappy at the prospect of any role for the ECJ. “You can’t have a foreign court exercising jurisdiction in your country. Why should there be any need for the Northern Irish courts to refer anything to the ECJ?” said Mr Jones.

No 10 did not deny reports a deal was expected soon, but stressed nothing had been agreed. “Any solution on the protocol must address the range of issues on the ground in Northern Ireland,” said a government spokesperson.

They added: “We are currently engaging in scoping talks with the EU to find solutions to these problems.”

Rishi Sunak met EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen in November (PA)

It comes as Brexiteers also expressed their angry at a “secret” cross-party gathering on how to address Brexit failures and other foreign policy issues held at the Ditchley Park retreat in Oxfordshire last week.

Levelling up secretary Michael Gove – who co-led the Vote Leave campaign in 2016 – was said to be in attendance alongside members of Sir Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet, including Labour’s shadow foreign secretary David Lammy.

The Observer reported that “private discussion” were headed under the title: “How can we make Brexit work better with our neighbours in Europe?”

But the significance of the event was played down by sources with knowledge of the meeting. One familiar with the event said it was a “quite dull conference” on foreign affairs, not just on ways to improve ties with the EU.

No 10 said Mr Sunak had not been aware in advance of the cross-party gathering at the retreat. It is understood Mr Gove attended the meeting because he is a governor at Ditchley Park.

A Labour source said: “This was a bog standard Ditchley Park conference. Their events are always cross-party.”