EU Referendum: How to find out if Brexit or Remain is winning as the results are announced

Compare every result as its announced tonight with these expert predictions

Harry Lambert
Friday 24 June 2016 03:57
Comments
The Camerons go to the polls today. Credit: Getty.
The Camerons go to the polls today. Credit: Getty.

UPDATE: After results from the first 137 districts (out of 382) - 40 per cent of the UK - we now have a strong indication that the UK will leave the EU.

104 of the 137 results have been more favourable for Brexit than expected if the country was on course for a 50:50 tie.

Follow the latest live updates on the EU referendum

Brexit or Remain? Follow the results on our live tracker

The average extra vote for Leave has been 5.3 per cent across these first 137 districts.

One top psephologist now thinks Remain's chances of winning are essentially zero.

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You don't need to wait for broadcasters to call tonight's referendum – here's your cheatsheet.

Voting for the EU Referendum is made up of 382 individual contests across the UK (that includes the Isles of Scilly and Gibraltar).

These 382 districts will report the results in the local area as soon as they count them, and we have a good idea of when each district will report.

How the EU referendum result unfolded

The first results, in Newcastle and Sunderland, are expected tonight at around 12.30am.

They will be followed by the City of London at 12.45am, with Swindon, Oldham and Darlington reporting around then or closer to 1am.

Seven other districts are due at 01.30am, with around two dozen due at 2am. The deluge begins at 3am and the result should be known by 5am.

As every result comes out, you can get a sense of what's happening by comparing the actual result in every contest with the predictions in the list below.

These predictions are based on a 50:50 overall result.

In other words, a six-point lead for Leave in Sunderland is what these predictions suggest would happen if the race is a tie overall.

So if Remain win in Sunderland, that could be an indication of a strong night for them. While if Leave win by huge margins, perhaps they will win big tonight.

The 24 most important results to watch are in bold below – these will tell us who is most likely to win nationally.

Area Time Remain Leave

Newcastle upon Tyne

12:30 am

57

43

Sunderland

12:30 am

46

54

City of London

12:45 am

77

23

Swindon

12:45 am

41

59

Oldham

1:00 am

44

56

Darlington

1:00 am

44

56

Comhairle Nan Eilean Siar 1:30 am 68 32
Stockport 1:30 am 54 46
North Hertfordshire 1:30 am 53 47

Salford

1:30 am

50

50

Merthyr Tydfil

1:30 am

50

50

Hartlepool 1:30 am 37 63
Basildon 1:30 am 35 65
Stirling 2:00 am 69 31
Wandsworth 2:00 am 69 31
Shetland Islands 2:00 am 65 35
Westminster 2:00 am 63 37
South Lanarkshire 2:00 am 62 38
Clackmannanshire 2:00 am 61 39
North Ayrshire 2:00 am 59 41
Warwick 2:00 am 59 41
Angus 2:00 am 58 42
Neath Port Talbot 2:00 am 55 45
North Tyneside 2:00 am 52 48

Hart

2:00 am

50

50

Denbighshire

2:00 am

50

50

Wrexham

2:00 am

49

51

Malvern Hills

2:00 am

49

51

South Norfolk 2:00 am 47 53
Richmondshire 2:00 am 47 53
Blaenau Gwent 2:00 am 47 53
South Tyneside 2:00 am 45 55
Ipswich 2:00 am 45 55
Sandwell 2:00 am 41 59
Dover 2:00 am 41 59
North Warwickshire 2:00 am 39 61
Pendle 2:00 am 39 61
Tamworth 2:00 am 39 61
East Ayrshire 2:15 am 59 41
Oxford 2:30 am 73 27
Lambeth 2:30 am 72 28
Dundee City 2:30 am 66 34
Orkney Islands 2:30 am 66 34
Merton 2:30 am 62 38
North Lanarkshire 2:30 am 61 39
Swansea 2:30 am 55 45
Woking 2:30 am 53 47
Stroud 2:30 am 53 47
High Peak 2:30 am 52 48
St Helens 2:30 am 51 49

Enfield

2:30 am

50

50

Caerphilly

2:30 am

50

50

Hertsmere 2:30 am 48 52
Ribble Valley 2:30 am 47 53
Rugby 2:30 am 47 53
Lincoln 2:30 am 45 55
North Dorset 2:30 am 44 56
Crawley 2:30 am 43 57
Rushmoor 2:30 am 42 58
Plymouth 2:30 am 42 58
Nuneaton and Bedworth 2:30 am 41 59
Hyndburn 2:30 am 39 61
Havant 2:30 am 39 61
Barrow-in-Furness 2:30 am 38 62
Harlow 2:30 am 37 63
Broxbourne 2:30 am 34 66
Castle Point 2:30 am 29 71
Islington 3:00 am 74 26
Southwark 3:00 am 71 29
Camden 3:00 am 71 29
Haringey 3:00 am 69 31
Renfrewshire 3:00 am 65 35
East Renfrewshire 3:00 am 65 35
East Lothian 3:00 am 64 36
West Dunbartonshire 3:00 am 62 38
Inverclyde 3:00 am 61 39
Gwynedd 3:00 am 61 39
St Albans 3:00 am 61 39
Reading 3:00 am 60 40
Falkirk 3:00 am 59 41
Exeter 3:00 am 57 43
Moray 3:00 am 57 43
Wokingham 3:00 am 54 46
West Oxfordshire 3:00 am 53 47
Knowsley 3:00 am 53 47
Monmouthshire 3:00 am 52 48
Bridgend 3:00 am 52 48
Gateshead 3:00 am 52 48

Chesterfield

3:00 am

50

50

Epsom and Ewell

3:00 am

50

50

Durham

3:00 am

50

50

Welwyn Hatfield

3:00 am

50

50

Wirral

3:00 am

50

50

Torfaen 3:00 am 49 51
West Berkshire 3:00 am 49 51
Newcastle-under-Lyme 3:00 am 48 52
Conwy 3:00 am 48 52
Uttlesford 3:00 am 47 53
Chorley 3:00 am 47 53
Colchester 3:00 am 47 53
Oadby & Wigston 3:00 am 47 53
Wycombe 3:00 am 47 53
Warrington 3:00 am 47 53
Bury 3:00 am 47 53
Hastings 3:00 am 47 53
Runnymede 3:00 am 47 53
Fylde 3:00 am 46 54
Eastleigh 3:00 am 45 55
Barking & Dagenham 3:00 am 45 55
North West Leicestershire 3:00 am 45 55
Bracknell Forest 3:00 am 45 55
South Bucks 3:00 am 45 55
Charnwood 3:00 am 45 55
Barnsley 3:00 am 44 56
Mid Suffolk 3:00 am 44 56
Chelmsford 3:00 am 44 56
Wigan 3:00 am 44 56
Bolton 3:00 am 43 57
Copeland 3:00 am 43 57
Rochdale 3:00 am 43 57
Stockton-on-Tees 3:00 am 42 58
Wyre 3:00 am 42 58
Weymouth & Portland 3:00 am 42 58
West Somerset 3:00 am 42 58
North Devon 3:00 am 41 59
Maidstone 3:00 am 41 59
New Forest 3:00 am 41 59
Gosport 3:00 am 39 61
Stoke-on-Trent 3:00 am 39 61
Southend-on-Sea 3:00 am 39 61
Cannock Chase 3:00 am 38 62
Peterborough 3:00 am 38 62
Sedgemoor 3:00 am 38 62
Wellingborough 3:00 am 37 63
Shepway 3:00 am 36 64
North East Lincolnshire 3:00 am 35 65
Thanet 3:00 am 34 66
Edinburgh 3:30 am 76 24
Cambridge 3:30 am 75 25
Aberdeen 3:30 am 69 31
Hammersmith & Fulham 3:30 am 67 33
Perth and Kinross 3:30 am 63 37
Midlothian 3:30 am 62 38
Brent 3:30 am 61 39
West Lothian 3:30 am 60 40
Ealing 3:30 am 60 40
Cheltenham 3:30 am 58 42
Barnet 3:30 am 57 43
Greenwich 3:30 am 57 43
Rhondda Cynon Taf 3:30 am 56 44
Dumfries & Galloway 3:30 am 55 45
Powys 3:30 am 53 47
Carmarthenshire 3:30 am 53 47
Sutton 3:30 am 51 49

Lancaster

3:30 am

50

50

Newport

3:30 am

50

50

South Hams 3:30 am 49 51
Three Rivers 3:30 am 49 51
Milton Keynes 3:30 am 49 51
Preston 3:30 am 49 51
Taunton Deane 3:30 am 48 52
Halton 3:30 am 47 53
Tandridge 3:30 am 47 53
Portsmouth 3:30 am 47 53
Flintshire 3:30 am 47 53
Surrey Heath 3:30 am 46 54
South Derbyshire 3:30 am 45 55
Gedling 3:30 am 45 55
Rossendale 3:30 am 45 55
Burnley 3:30 am 44 56
South Somerset 3:30 am 44 56
Tonbridge & Malling 3:30 am 43 57
Carlisle 3:30 am 43 57
Purbeck 3:30 am 43 57
Kingston-upon-Hull 3:30 am 43 57
Forest of Dean 3:30 am 43 57
Erewash 3:30 am 43 57
Newark and Sherwood 3:30 am 42 58
Staffordshire Moorlands 3:30 am 42 58
Scarborough 3:30 am 42 58
Melton 3:30 am 42 58
Bournemouth 3:30 am 42 58
Epping Forest 3:30 am 39 61
Walsall 3:30 am 39 61
Redcar & Cleveland 3:30 am 39 61
Dudley 3:30 am 39 61
Rochford 3:30 am 36 64
King's Lynn & West Norfolk 3:30 am 35 65
Boston 3:30 am 28 72
Tower Hamlets 4:00 am 68 32
Lewisham 4:00 am 66 34
Argyll & Bute 4:00 am 65 35
Brighton & Hove 4:00 am 64 36
Fife 4:00 am 63 37
Ceredigion 4:00 am 62 38
Cardiff 4:00 am 61 39
Scottish Borders 4:00 am 60 40
Norwich 4:00 am 60 40
York 4:00 am 59 41
Trafford 4:00 am 57 43
Newham 4:00 am 57 43
Rushcliffe 4:00 am 57 43
Elmbridge 4:00 am 56 44
Harrow 4:00 am 56 44
Waltham Forest 4:00 am 56 44
Watford 4:00 am 55 45
Mole Valley 4:00 am 54 46
Waverley 4:00 am 54 46
Croydon 4:00 am 53 47
Redbridge 4:00 am 53 47
Vale of Glamorgan 4:00 am 52 48
Tunbridge Wells 4:00 am 52 48
Chiltern 4:00 am 51 49
Southampton 4:00 am 51 49

Harrogate

4:00 am

50

50

Mendip

4:00 am

50

50

Pembrokeshire

4:00 am

50

50

Craven

4:00 am

50

50

Broxtowe

4:00 am

50

50

Stratford-on-Avon

4:00 am

50

50

West Dorset

4:00 am

50

50

Lewes

4:00 am

49

51

Hambleton

4:00 am

49

51

East Hertfordshire 4:00 am 49 51
Ryedale 4:00 am 49 51
Worcester 4:00 am 49 51
Bromley 4:00 am 48 52
East Hampshire 4:00 am 48 52
Canterbury 4:00 am 48 52
Birmingham 4:00 am 48 52
Basingstoke & Deane 4:00 am 48 52
Horsham 4:00 am 47 53
Stafford 4:00 am 47 53
Allerdale 4:00 am 46 54
Test Valley 4:00 am 47 53
Mid Devon 4:00 am 46 54
Solihull 4:00 am 46 54
Sevenoaks 4:00 am 46 54
Bedford 4:00 am 46 54
West Lancashire 4:00 am 46 54
South Ribble 4:00 am 45 55
Suffolk Coastal 4:00 am 46 54
Wakefield 4:00 am 45 55
Bromsgrove 4:00 am 44 56
Stevenage 4:00 am 44 56
Brentwood 4:00 am 44 56
Babergh 4:00 am 44 56
Fareham 4:00 am 44 56
Bolsover 4:00 am 43 57
Bassetlaw 4:00 am 43 57
Selby 4:00 am 42 58
Daventry 4:00 am 42 58
Gloucester 4:00 am 42 58
Eastbourne 4:00 am 42 58
Huntingdonshire 4:00 am 42 58
Blackburn with Darwen 4:00 am 41 59
Telford & Wrekin 4:00 am 42 58
Wolverhampton 4:00 am 41 59
Lichfield 4:00 am 42 58
Broadland 4:00 am 41 59
St Edmundsbury 4:00 am 41 59
Doncaster 4:00 am 40 60
East Riding of Yorkshire 4:00 am 41 59
East Staffordshire 4:00 am 40 60
Rotherham 4:00 am 40 60
North Kesteven 4:00 am 40 60
Ashford 4:00 am 39 61
Wyre Forest 4:00 am 39 61
Rother 4:00 am 40 60
Corby 4:00 am 39 61
Mansfield 4:00 am 39 61
Redditch 4:00 am 39 61
Dartford 4:00 am 39 61
Blackpool 4:00 am 39 61
Middlesbrough 4:00 am 38 62
South Staffordshire 4:00 am 37 63
Havering 4:00 am 36 64
Braintree 4:00 am 36 64
Breckland 4:00 am 35 65
Swale 4:00 am 34 66
Thurrock 4:00 am 34 66
Forest Heath 4:00 am 31 69
Tendring 4:00 am 31 69
Hackney 4:30 am 71 29
East Dunbarton 4:30 am 69 31
South Cambridgeshire 4:30 am 59 41
Kingston-upon-Thames 4:30 am 59 41
Vale of White Horse 4:30 am 56 44
South Oxfordshire 4:30 am 53 47
Sheffield 4:30 am 52 48
Chichester 4:30 am 48 52
Wiltshire 4:30 am 47 53
Aylesbury Vale 4:30 am 47 53
Tewkesbury 4:30 am 47 53
North East Derbyshire 4:30 am 46 54
Teignbridge 4:30 am 45 55
Spelthorne 4:30 am 41 59
Bexley 4:30 am 41 59
Poole 4:30 am 39 61
East Dorset 4:30 am 39 61
Christchurch 4:30 am 38 62
Isle of Wight 4:30 am 38 62
North Lincolnshire 4:30 am 37 63
Great Yarmouth 4:30 am 30 70
Glasgow 5:00 am 72 28
Richmond Upon Thames 5:00 am 66 34
Manchester 5:00 am 62 38
South Ayrshire 5:00 am 61 39
Aberdeenshire 5:00 am 61 39
Kensington and Chelsea 5:00 am 60 40
Liverpool 5:00 am 58 42
South Lakeland 5:00 am 58 42
Hounslow 5:00 am 55 45
Derbyshire Dales 5:00 am 53 47

Eden

5:00 am

50

50

Cheshire East

5:00 am

50

50

Sefton

5:00 am

50

50

Cheshire West & Chester 5:00 am 49 51
Northumberland 5:00 am 49 51
Coventry 5:00 am 48 52
Slough 5:00 am 48 52
East Cambridgeshire 5:00 am 48 52
Calderdale 5:00 am 47 53
Kirklees 5:00 am 47 53
Mid Sussex 5:00 am 47 53
Hillingdon 5:00 am 46 54
Dacorum 5:00 am 46 54
Amber Valley 5:00 am 46 54
East Devon 5:00 am 45 55
Derby 5:00 am 45 55
West Devon 5:00 am 45 55
Bradford 5:00 am 44 56
Tameside 5:00 am 44 56
Luton 5:00 am 42 58
Wychavon 5:00 am 43 57
Blaby 5:00 am 42 58
West Lindsey 5:00 am 42 58
North Norfolk 5:00 am 41 59
Central Bedfordshire 5:00 am 41 59
Ashfield 5:00 am 40 60
Kettering 5:00 am 39 61
Torridge 5:00 am 36 64
Torbay 5:00 am 35 65
Gravesham 5:00 am 33 67
South Holland 5:00 am 28 72
Highland 5:30 am 63 37
Guildford 5:30 am 56 44
Cotswold 5:30 am 51 49
Fenland 5:30 am 27 73
Bristol 6:00 am 60 40
Bath & North East Somerset 6:00 am 57 43
Leeds 6:00 am 54 46
Windsor and Maidenhead 6:00 am 53 47
Nottingham 6:00 am 53 47
Rutland 6:00 am 48 52
Reigate & Banstead 6:00 am 48 52
Cherwell 6:00 am 47 53
South Gloucestershire 6:00 am 46 54
Shropshire 6:00 am 46 54
South Northamptonshire 6:00 am 45 55
Herefordshire 6:00 am 43 57
Cornwall 6:00 am 43 57
Wealden 6:00 am 43 57
Hinckley & Bosworth 6:00 am 42 58
Northampton 6:00 am 42 58
East Northamptonshire 6:00 am 41 59
South Kesteven 6:00 am 41 59
Medway 6:00 am 37 63
Maldon 6:00 am 36 64
East Lindsey 6:00 am 35 65
Winchester 6:30 am 60 40
Leicester 6:30 am 52 48
North Somerset 6:30 am 46 54
Worthing 6:30 am 45 55
Adur 6:30 am 41 59
Harborough 7:00 am 47 53
Waveney 7:00 am 38 62
Arun 7:00 am 35 65

But each estimate is probabilistic, which means they really say “90 times out of 100, anything from a 1-point win for Remain to a 13-point win for Brexit in Sunderland is consistent with a 50:50 overall vote.”

Nevertheless, if tonight's results differ significantly in many seats all in one direction - significantly more for Leave or for Remain - that will be a very good indication of who's won.

We've highlighted the first few contests and the two dozen that are set to come closest to a tie. Keep your eye on these in particular.

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