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General Election 2015: Cameron points finger at Lib Dems over Sturgeon leaked memo row

Exclusive: An adviser to Alistair Carmichael, the Lib Dem Scottish Secretary, is expected to be questioned by Cabinet Office officials conducting a leak inquiry

Andrew Grice,James Cusick

Wednesday 08 April 2015 07:27 BST

Nicola Sturgeon is reported to have said she’d rather see “David Cameron remain as PM” (Getty)

David Cameron has pointed a finger of suspicion at the Liberal Democrats in the row over who leaked a memo alleging that Nicola Sturgeon wanted to see him remain prime minister.

An adviser to Alistair Carmichael, the Lib Dem Scottish Secretary, is expected to be questioned by Cabinet Office officials conducting a leak inquiry. But senior Lib Dems accuse the Tories of playing a “blame game” at their expense.

Ms Sturgeon, the SNP First Minister, complained of “dirty tricks” after a confidential memo written in the Scotland Office claimed she told Sylvie Bermann, the French Ambassador to the UK, that she did not see Ed Miliband as “prime ministerial material.” Ms Sturgeon, who has pledged to “lock out” the Conservatives after the election by working with other parties including Labour, has emphatically denied expressing a preference for Mr Cameron.

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

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1/10In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)

“My position has moved: no party can win a majority now. I have also shifted in favour of the Conservatives winning more seats than Labour. That, however, assumes that the current Tory momentum is maintained and that they don’t do anything daft or careless between now and polling day. But the underlying pattern is distinctly in their favour.” (In January he predicted Labour would be the largest party, possibly with a small majority.)

Andrew Hawkins

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Joe Twyman (YouGov)

“Probably: a ‘well hung parliament’. Possibly: Conservatives winning most votes and seats, thanks, in part, to SNP gains at Labour’s expense. Speculation: Conservatives unable to form another coalition, not having enough seats with just the Lib Dems, but Labour better placed with SNP and Lib Dems – albeit informally.” (In January Twyman said: “Gun to my head? Labour minority government.”)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)

“Stuck in ‘too close to call’ mode still, made harder by the way votes translate into seats in Parliament. If the parties remain neck and neck, Labour might just end up with more seats, but not a majority. We still have weeks of campaign to go and no clear picture for the marginals, where the polling that is being done suggests a lot of local variations that have plenty of potential to surprise us in May.” (Last time Page said it was a “mug’s game” to make predictions four months before an election.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Rick Nye (Populus)

“Since January, the Conservatives have clearly improved on the polls relative to Labour to the point where I’d expect the Conservatives to win the most seats as well as the most votes 7 May. What’s less clear is whether the Conservatives would be able to form a government. (In January Nye expected a hung parliament in which Labour would win most seats but not necessarily most votes.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Nick Moon (GfK)

“Something would need to change dramatically for there to be any chance of a one-party majority government. My guess: the Tories will be largest party, but some way short of forming even a two-party coalition. A Labour minority government seems most likely, but I won’t be putting money on it.” (Prediction unchanged since January.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)

“On Survation’s public polling, Ed Miliband remains the person most likely to form the next government. However, he’s far from the workable majority figure required [321]. Friday 8 May will remain a day of deals and discussions with other parties to form the next government.” (In January he expected Labour to be the largest party in a hung parliament, by 40-50 seats over the Conservatives.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Michelle Harrison (TNS)

“It’s less a case of who wins but who can scrape over the line. Labour polls better on the NHS; the Tories poll better on the economy. Can any claim additional territory from the other over the remaining weeks? Probably not. But our polls show that the public thinks the Tories will be the largest party. In the absence of a firm lead, I’ll go with the wisdom of crowds.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

James Endersby (Opinium Research)

“Despite the recent weekly statistical ties, we’ve witnessed the faint whispers of movement in the air and a slow, unsteady and shaky sway towards the Tories. How this shift plays out over the coming weeks obviously depends on a huge number of factors. My call, if this holds fast and momentum gathers: Conservatives 288, Labour 267, SNP 45, Lib Dems 24, Plaid Cymru 3, Ukip 3, Greens 2.” (In January he put Labour on 320 seats.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Martin Boon (ICM)

“I’m tempted to say: how should I know? I’m just a pollster. But I feel that Miliband may just have raised himself from the grave, so I’ll add a couple to where I had them before. Everyone else largely becalmed although, I see the Greens disappearing from view and Ukip sliding a touch. Tories 34 per cent, Lab 32 per cent, Lib Dems 14 per cent, Ukip 12 per cent. I don’t trust any academic model that translates vote shares into seats, so a seat projection from this is a pure and simple guess, which is Labour to be touching 300 seats with the Tories just behind.” (In January Boon predicted Labour on 290 seats.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)

He refuses to make predictions. “My polls are snapshots, not predictions.”

Rex

In an interview with The Independent, Mr Cameron said: “There is a leak inquiry underway. It is a proper one and I hope we get the answer because I do deplore leaks of this kind. You have to have private diplomatic space in which to talk. I hope we get to the bottom of who did it.”

Asked if he suspected the hand of the Lib Dems, Mr Cameron replied: “I have heard very clearly David Mundell [the Tory Scotland Office Minister] saying it wasn't him, so one does wonder.”

The Prime Minister’s suggestion will anger the Lib Dems at a time when relations between the Coalition partners are increasingly strained. In his interview, Mr Cameron branded Nick Clegg and other senior Lib Dems “a bit desperate” after they attacked the Conservatives in recent days.

An adviser to Alistair Carmichael, the Lib Dem Scottish Secretary, is expected to be questioned by Cabinet Office officials (Getty) (Getty Images)

The Prime Minister said: “The minor parties are going to make a lot of noise. They want to be heard and are worried about being left out of a fundamental choice of which team runs the country. I don’t think it works. They should run on their record, not on part of it. There is a lot to be proud of. I am running on the record – the difficult bits as well as the easy bits.”

However, Mr Cameron declined to entirely rule out forming another coalition with Mr Clegg’s party in order to keep Labour out. “I don’t want to, I am not aiming to. I am not going to speculate on anything other than victory,” he said.

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