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General Election 2015: Nick Clegg set to lose his seat according to latest Sheffield Hallam poll

Lib Dem leader insists private party polling shows him 'firmly ahead' but second Lord Ashcroft poll in as many months shows him behind Labour

Wednesday 29 April 2015 18:51 BST

The Lib Dems are set to put their electoral hope in the “incumbency factor” after a ComRes poll showed a double-digit swing to the Tories across 14 constituencies in the south-west of England (Getty)

Nick Clegg is set to lose his seat, according to the latest Lord Ashcroft poll of his Sheffield Hallam constituency.

The Liberal Democrat leader is trailing behind Labour candidate Oliver Coppard by one point, but has narrowed the gap from the pollster's survey of the seat last month.

Mr Clegg won the seat with a massive majority of more than 15,000 seats in 2010 and he insists his own party's private polling shows him "firmly ahead".

He also pointed to the fact that Lord Ashcroft does not include the names of the candidates in his polling and said voters are much more likely to support Mr Clegg when they see his name on the ballot paper.

The poll shows Mr Coppard leading on 37 per cent, Mr Clegg trailing one point behind on 36 per cent, with the Conservative candidate Ian Walker on 15 per cent.

Mr Walker's support has fallen from Lord Ashcroft's poll of Sheffield Hallam last month at the same time as Mr Clegg's support has edged up slightly, suggesting Tory supporters are lending their vote to the Liberal Democrat leader to block Labour from winning.

Talking to reporters on the campaign trail, Mr Clegg said: "Just call me old-fashioned, but if you are going to try to work out how people are going to vote, ask them the question they are actually going to be asked on polling day."

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Show all 10

1/10In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)

“This is an election of wild promises and political cross-dressing; so no differentiation, no breakthrough, no majority. The most likely outcome is Ed Miliband in No 10 because only he will be in a position to work with enough parties (that is, the SNP) to form a workable government.”

Andrew Hawkins

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Joe Twyman (YouGov)

“As each day passes and the Conservatives fail to increase their vote share, the likelihood of Ed Miliband becoming PM (albeit still with a minority) grows. That’s due to the continued performance of the SNP in Scotland and former Lib Dem voters propping up Labour in England.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)

“A better week for Ed Miliband than for David Cameron – personal ratings improving, and the betting markets moved in his favour. The poll numbers have him ahead by a whisker which, combined with the electoral maths, makes him more likely to be able to form some kind of government on the raw numbers right now. However, Cameron will be hoping for a 1992 moment when ultimately voters can’t quite bring themselves to try someone else – and 38 per cent of voters still say they may change their mind.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Rick Nye (Populus)

“The Populus/Hanover Predictor has Ed Miliband ending up as Prime Minister in more than five out of six simulations we run.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Nick Moon (GfK)

“Tories most seats, SNP 45 or more, Ukip fewer than five: minority Labour government.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)

“Ukip’s vote share is prone to be squeezed, benefiting the Conservatives, while the SNP’s onslaught on Labour continues. Based on three UK/Scotland polls, I am upgrading the Conservatives and the SNP, and downgrading Labour. Both the Lib Dems on 30 seats and Ukip on 5 to 10 remain unchanged.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Michelle Harrison (TNS)

“Still no change, but Nicola Sturgeon goes from strength to strength in Scotland. For me, who the biggest party is will hinge on the crucial marginals. But what ultimately wins – safety first, for the Tories, or Labour’s ‘get out the vote’ ground war?”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

James Endersby (Opinium Research)

“Our poll today shows a one-point Tory lead, statistically a tie. It’s going to be incredibly tight. Labour and the Tories would do well to be negotiating with the smaller parties behind the scenes. In the likely event of a hung parliament, we’ve been testing various combinations of coalition. Labour teaming up with the Lib Dems would be more popular than with the SNP, which in turn would be more popular than a Tory/UKIP scenario.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Martin Boon (ICM)

“Not much going on really, and no reason to change my mind. Tories by a couple of points.

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)

He refuses to make predictions. “My polls are snapshots, not predictions.”

Rex

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