How the support is lining up

'The Independent' contacted 115 out of 166 Tory MPs over the past 48 hours to gauge their voting intentions

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Leading article: A simple plan - pick the person who plays best at the box office

In search of the lost tribe

MICHAEL ANCRAM

Definite 7
Michael Ancram, Stephen O'Brien, Ann Widdecombe, Crispin Blunt, Peter Bottomley, Jonathan Sayeed, Charles Hendry

Possible 4
Andrew Lansley, Tim Collins, William Hague, Henry Bellingham

KENNETH CLARKE

Definite 10
Kenneth Clarke, David Curry, Ian Taylor, Michael Mates, Andrew Tyri, Quentin Davies, James Clappison, Boris Johnson, John Gummer, Anthony Steen

Possible 11
Brian Mawhinney, Anthony Baldry, Robert Jackson, Michael Jack, Robert Walter, George Young, Jacqui Lait, Alistair Burt, Chris Grayling, Peter Atkinson, Alan Haselhurst

IAIN DUNCAN SMITH

Definite 14
Eric Pickles, Richard Shepherd, Andrew Hunter, Julian Brazier, Iain Duncan-Smith, Christopher Chope, Bernard Jenkin, Edward Leigh, Patrick Mercer, Owen Paterson, John Hayes, Angela Browning, Teddy Taylor

Possible 13
Sir Peter Tapsell, William Cash, Ian Liddell-Grainger, John Redwood, Gerald Howarth, Paul Goodman, Hugo Swire, Andrew Rosindell, John Wilkinson, Desmond Swayne, John Horam, Bob Spink, David Amess

DAVID DAVIS

Definite 9
David Davis, Eric Forth, Peter Viggers, Derek Conway, David Maclean, Roger Gale, Greg Knight, Richard Bacon, David Wilshire

Possible 5
Simon Burns, David Tredinnick, Julian Lewis, Michael Trend, Andrew Robathan

MICHAEL PORTILLO

Definite 34
Michael Portillo, Archie Norman, Howard Flight, Peter Ainsworth, Damian Green, David Lidington, Nick Gibb, Andrew MacKay, Julie Kirkbride, John Bercow, Stephen Dorrell, Cheryl Gillan, Mark Field, Richard Ottaway, Gary Streeter, Oliver Letwin, Nigel Waterson, Michael Fabricant, Edward Garnier, David Willetts, Peter Lilley, Francis Maude, Keith Simpson, Nigel Evans, Douglas Hogg, Alan Duncan, Robert Key, Tim Yeo, Richard Spring, Nicholas Soames, David Heathcoat-Amory, Liam Fox, Theresa May, Robert Syms

Possible 8
George Osborne, Mark Hoban, Eleanor Laing, James Arbuthnot, Hugh Robertson, Nicholas Hawkins, David Cameron, David Ruffley

TOO TOUGH TO CALL

Andrew Mitchell, Graham Brad, Dominic Grieve, Andrew Selous, James Cran, Greg Barker, John Baron, Mark Simmonds, David Atkinson, John Butterfill, Marion Roe, Malcolm Moss, James Paice, Gillian Shephard, Sydney Chapman, Ann Winterton, Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, Timothy Boswell, Patrick McLoughlin, Michael Howard, Peter Duncan, Mark Prisk, Oliver Heald, Richard Page, Jonathan Djanogly, Andrew Turner, Bill Wiggin, Nicholas Winterton, John Whittingdale, Caroline Spelman, Paul Beresford, Mark Francois, Philip Hammond, John Greenway, John M Taylor, Patrick Cormack, John Maples, Michael Lord, Virginia Bottomley, Adrian Flook, Laurence Robertson, John Stanley, Angela Watkinson, John Randall, Anne McIntosh, Andrew Murrison, James Gray, Humfrey Malins, Peter Luff, Michael Spicer, Tim Loughton