MPs told to lower hopes to protect Duncan Smith

Tory MPs have been ordered to predict that the party will gain no more than 50 seats in next May's local elections under plans to protect Iain Duncan Smith from a leadership challenge.

In a move to pre-empt criticism of the Conservatives' performance, all members of the Shadow Cabinet have been told to lower expectations, The Independent has learnt. Gains of between 500 and 1,000 seats should be expected by an opposition if it is to have a chance of beating the Government at the next election.

Mr Duncan Smith said yesterday that he "couldn't care less" that "a few people" were plotting, but it is clear that May's elections are seen as a key test for the Tory leader.

Andrew Mackay, the former shadow Northern Ireland Secretary and one of those accused of plotting, said publicly for the first time that MPs had "legitimate concerns" about the leadership. David Davis, the former party chairman, also refused to rule out standing for the leadership.

Nevertheless, senior MPs have been instructed to set the expected number of gains for May at "a maximum of 50", a line they should stick to "even after the third glass of wine when lunching journalists".

The Tories made 1,400 net gains in 1999, the last time most of the seats were fought, but even this so-called "high-water mark" was only a success when compared to the 1995 election – the worst result for the Tories in the history of local government.