What will happen if Labour loses the Batley and Spen by-election?

Batley and Spen, which has been in Labour hands since 1997, is widely expected to turn blue on Thursday when voters head to the polls. Sean O’Grady considers the factors that have left Starmer’s party facing another electoral loss, and the potential consequences of a disastrous result

Labour candidate Kim Leadbeater has found it tough going (PA)

Starmer Out” is the blunt message on the posters of the George Galloway campaign in the Batley and Spen by-election, which will be held on Thursday. He may succeed, if only because his intervention on behalf of his Workers Party may split the Labour vote in a seat with a large Muslim community, and one where Labour has been losing ground to the Conservatives and other populist parties on the right.

Should that happen, and the Tories take the constituency (which has been in Labour hands since 1997), the Corbynite left or others may mount a challenge; there are rumours of manoeuvres by Angela Rayner and Lisa Nandy, both northern MPs, and by Dawn Butler, one of the front bench casualties when Keir Starmer took over from Jeremy Corbyn. They need about 40 MPs to back such a disruptive move, though, with probably little chance of beating Starmer in any case. But there’d be trouble, following the loss of Hartlepool, some disappointing performances in Scotland and the north and Midlands at the May elections, a 10-point Tory poll lead, a lost deposit at the Chesham by-election and general grumbles about the Labour leader’s managerial style.