Zimbabwe pushes EU closer to sanctions

EU foreign ministers today face a crunch decision on whether to impose sanctions on Zimbabwe after the government in Harare expelled the head of the European observer mission at the weekend.

The ejection of Pierre Schori, the Swedish diplomat appointed to lead the EU team, is a clear breach of the ultimatum laid down by the ministers to the Zimbabwean President, Robert Mugabe, last month.

That threatened smart sanctions against leading government figures, including a visa ban and a freeze on overseas assets, as well as an embargo on the export of military and other equipment, if the work of observers or the international media was hampered.

However, some member states are still worried that a decision to impose sanctions now would play into the hands of Mr Mugabe – giving him the pretext to exclude the remaining EU election monitors.

Confronted by this difficult dilemma, officials were last night trying to arrange for Mr Schori to report to today's meeting in Brussels.

The Swedish diplomat was harassed by the authorities in Zimbabwe who confronted him at his hotel before giving him 24 hours to leave the country. Three Swedish journalists were yesterday refused permission to cover the March presidential elections.

Mr Schori's advice to the ministers could be crucial. If he tells them that there is now no prospect of a credible observer mission, sanctions are likely to be implemented immediately.

However if he argues that the 26 other EU observers who have been accredited are still in a position to contribute to a fairer election process then the ministers may hold off again. The imposition of sanctions would almost certainly mean the end of the EU monitoring mission whose presence may act as a restraint upon Mr Mugabe.

Yesterday, Mr Schori was being discreet in describing sanctions as a "worst-case scenario" and adding that the ministers "will have to think hard about what to do."

But EU foreign minister know that, if they allow Mr Mugabe to veto at will certain EU monitors, they will be setting a dangerous precedent. Not only is Zimbabwe vetoing nationalities within the EU, it emerged yesterday that they have stipulated which developing countries they will allow to nominate monitors.

The outcome on sanctions remained unpredictable last night: Germany, Britain and Sweden are likely to take a tough line with others, including France, expected to be more cautious. One well-placed diplomat said "the question remains open".

Glenys Kinnock, the Labour MEP, said: "I cannot see any option but that we draw a line under our efforts to engage with a man who has become increasingly cynical and despotic."

Even Mr Mugabe's harshest critics concede that he has been skillful in playing a game of diplomatic cat and mouse with the EU.

Yesterday, Mr Mugabe stepped up efforts to bolster his support among African leaders, arriving in Mozambique to meet the country's president, Joaquim Chissano, and the current chairman of the Southern African Development Community, the Malawian President Bakili Muluzi.

Despite the reservations of several leaders, the SADC has stood behind Mr Mugabe in the face of foreign criticism out of respect for his past role in the liberation struggles of several black African states.

The former South African president, Nelson Mandela argued "one of the things that we should not lose sight of is that Mugabe is a capable and experienced head of state" adding that he had attended meetings of the Organisation of African Unity where the Zimbabwean President was "one of the stars".