World’s largest coffee producer set to harvest more beans than ever

Despite a new record in output, coffee prices are expected to stay elevated

Brazil's coffee output is forecast to reach a record 66.2 million 60-kilogram (132.3 lb) bags in the 2026 harvest, marking a significant 17.1 per cent increase from the previous year, according to a report published on Thursday by national crop agency Conab.

Arabica coffee production is projected to surge by over a fifth to 44.1 million bags, benefiting from its biennial "on-year" cycle, the agency highlighted.

Conab also anticipates robusta coffee output to grow by 6.4 per cent to 22.1 million bags.

Conab attributed this positive outlook to "more favorable weather conditions recorded throughout the crop cycle, along with the adoption of technologies and good management practices in the fields, are influencing an improvement in productivity."

Consequently, overall yields are expected to climb by 12.4 per cent compared to the last harvest, reaching 34.2 bags per hectare.

According to Conab, the previous harvest yielded 56.5 million bags, while the country's prior record stood at 63.1 million bags in 2020.

Arabica coffee production is forecast to grow by over a fifth to 44.1 million bags, Conab said, citing the bean's ‘on-year’ in its biennial cycle, while adding that output of robusta coffee is expected to grow by 6.4 per cent to 22.1 million bags (Associated Press)

At a state level, Minas Gerais, the leading arabica producer, is set to see total coffee production – including some canephora – rise by 26 per cent to 32.4 million bags. This increase is attributed to better rain distribution and plant health in the region, Conab added.

Top canephora producer Espirito Santo is expected to see combined output rise by 9 per cent to 19 million bags, again due to good rains, Conab added.

Despite a new record in output, coffee prices are expected to stay elevated, Conab said.

"For the 2026 cycle, (coffee) prices are expected to remain high even with expectations of record production in Brazil, the world's leading coffee producer and exporter, and with prospects for a good harvest in Vietnam," Conab said, citing ever growing demand from consumers.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), coffee consumption globally is forecast at a record 173.9 million bags during the current cycle, while ending stocks - which act as a buffer between supply and demand - will drop for a fifth year to 20.1 million bags.