2020 election polls: Biden smashes ad spend record as GOP pollster says ‘impossible’ for Trump to be re-elected after debate
Follow the latest updates
The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday
Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US
Joe Biden came away from the second and last presidential debate with a dominant lead in snap polling, which showed him with a double-digit advantage over Donald Trump.
Despite the Republican president’s more reserved approach to Thursday night’s clash in Nashville - which was far less chaotic and acrimonious than their previous encounter in Cleveland on 29 September - Mr Trump still came under attack on issues such as the coronavirus, race and climate change.
Veteran GOP pollster Frank Luntz said that Trump may have won the battle of the last debate, but Biden has won the war. He says it's "impossible" for the president turning around voter sentiment this late in the election cycle.
Trump is also up against a campaign that has broken all records for its spend on television and digital advertising in a presidential election, with still more than a week to go before polls close
Despite promising to dig into his own war chest to make up the campaign funding shortfall, Trump is yet to donate his own cash to the last stage of the campaign.
Please allow a moment for our liveblog to load.
Pollster says now ‘impossible’ for Trump to defeat Biden
Donald Trump does not have enough time to overcome both Joe Biden’s poll leads, and the small matter that some 50 million ballots have already been cast in the election, following their debate performance on Thursday.
According to Republican pollster Frank Luntz, Mr Trump might have won over some undecided voters on the night, but he has ultimately failed to change the trajectory, making it “virtually impossible" to beat Mr Biden.
Even if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, when Mr Trump pulled off an upset victory against Hillary Clinton, added Mr Luntz, in an interview with CNBC.
“You got to give Trump a minor victory because he’ll bring some [undecided] voters home, and it’ll close the race a little bit. But in the end, I think Joe Biden won the war," he said.
Trump’s debate performance not enough?
All signs so far suggest that the final presidential debate will almost certainly not disrupt Biden’s advantage.
A YouGov snap poll found 54 percent thought Biden “won” the debate, while a CNN poll found 53 percent saying the same.
Of course, instant reaction polls are a rough tool, but any way you spin it, the debate was, at best, a draw for the president.
Brad Palambo has the analysis, here:
Trump performed better than expected — but polls show it wasn’t enough
The president needed a miracle, and even if he drew with Biden last night, the fact is that’s unlikely to save him
739 economists sign open letter opposing Trump re-election
Hundreds of economists from major institutions across the US have signed an open letter warning against reelecting Donald Trump.
They wrote that Trump's "selfish and reckless behavior" had weakened the economy.
"He has a poorly-informed, zero-sum view of economics that engenders needless viciousness and cruelty," says the letter signed by 739 prominent economists.
They argued that Trump had carried out a "sustained assault" on democracy, that he had "normalized corruption," and that he had spread "dangerous misinformation."
Among the signatories are are seven Nobel Prize winners, including Paul Milgrom, Oliver Hart, and George Akerlof.
They also pointed out that analysts at both Moody’s Analytics and Goldman Sachs had predicted that Joe Biden’s plans for the economy would lead to faster growth in both employment and GDP.
New polling out of North Carolina shows Biden in lead
The Meredith College poll has Biden in the lead by four points and also has good news for both the Democratic Senate and gubernatorial candidates.
North Carolina could be one of the first battleground states to be called on election night and an early indicator of what direction the election is taking.
Meanwhile in Montana
While Trump has a comfortable lead in traditionally Republican Montana, it is worth noting that he won the state in 2016 by a margin of 20 per cent over Hillary Clinton, (56 per cent to 35.7 per cent — Gary Johnson took 5.6 per cent of the vote).
According to polling by Siena Research, he is only ahead by six per cent in 2020 (49 per cent to 43 per cent) and the Libertarian share of the vote has dropped to just three per cent. Have the Democrats really made that much headway?
Hey, Big Spender!
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign has spent more money on television and digital advertising than any other presidential candidate in American history, with more than a week left to go before Election Day, The Hill reports.
Biden’s campaign has spent more than $582m on television advertising since launching his campaign last year, according to data from the nonpartisan firm Advertising Analytics.
In just the last week, Biden’s team spent $45m on air and plans to spend $57m in the last 10 days of the campaign.
The total easily surpasses the Trump spend of $342m over the last two years.
Neither total includes spending by pro-Biden or pro-Trump groups outside of the official campaign — for example, The Lincoln Project.
Rasmussen gives Trump a three-point lead in Florida
With Trump on campaigning in Florida today, the latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the Sunshine State has good news for him.
The poll of 800 likely voters, conducted online and by phone has Trump on 49 per cent and Biden on 46 per cent. A further three per cent favoured another candidate, and another three per cent are still undecided.
Factor in those who haven’t made up their minds yet but are leaning toward one candidate or the other, and Trump gains another point, besting Biden 50 per cent to 46 per cent.
In 2016, Trump earned 49 per cent of the vote in Florida, narrowly beating Democrat Hillary Clinton by 1.2 points to carry the state.
Eighty-nine percent of voters have already made up their minds whom they’re going to vote for. Trump leads 50 per cent to 48 per cent among this group.
Among the 45 per cent who say they have already voted, however, Biden has a 17-point lead – 56 per cent to 39 per cent.
Ninety-three per cent say they are definitely going to vote, and Trump has a five-point advantage – 50 per cent to 45 per cent - among those voters.
Better news for Biden in Georgia and Michigan
Opinion Insight and the American Action Forum put Biden ahead by four points in Georgia and nine points in Michigan, also recording encouraging results for Democrat Senate candidates.
The American Action Forum is a policy institute with forward-looking research on the most pressing domestic, economic policy challenges. Politically it describes itself as centre-right on economic, domestic, and fiscal policy issues and is affiliated with the American Action Network.
IBD/TIPP poll has Biden leading Trump, but by a narrowing margin
The latest 2020 national election poll update by IBD/TIPP shows the Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 4.6 points, 49.8 per cent to 45.2 per cent, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters.
Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 2.2 per cent, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.8 per cent.
The poll of 1,135 registered and 972 likely voters was conducted between 18 and 22 October.
Other findings of the poll include that investors, those that own stocks or mutual funds, favour Biden. As do seniors and suburban voters — both groups that preferred Trump in 2016.
No, Trump isn’t losing female suburban voters because of their ‘maternal instinct'
Assuming that Trump is losing support from women because of his family separation policy is naive, stereotypical and — as the numbers show — clearly untrue, writes Kathleen N Walsh.
No, Trump isn’t losing female suburban voters because of their ‘maternal instinct’
Assuming that Trump is losing support from women because of his family separation policy is naive, stereotypical and — as the numbers show — clearly untrue
Subscribe to Independent Premium to bookmark this article
Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Start your Independent Premium subscription today.
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies