Iowa caucus: ‘Gold standard’ poll scrapped days before vote after Buttigieg’s name reportedly left off survey

Error means Democratic candidates left in dark ahead of influential contest

One of the most influential polls in the Democratic presidential primary has been cancelled just one day before the Iowa caucus after a candidate’s name was left off at least one survey.

The Des Moines Register and CNN poll, which is considered to be the “gold standard” for political polling, was withheld minutes before its scheduled release on Saturday following an objection from candidate Pete Buttigieg’s campaign.

Although it has not been confirmed which candidate was left off the survey, The New York Times has reported two people familiar with the incident said Mr Buttigieg’s name may have been cut off from a list of options for respondents.

“Today, a respondent raised an issue with the way the survey was administered, which could have compromised the results of the poll,” Carol Hunter, executive editor of the Register, said.

“It appears a candidate’s name was omitted in at least one interview in which the respondent was asked to name their preferred candidate.”

Ms Hunter added: “While this appears to be isolated to one surveyor, we cannot confirm that with certainty. Therefore, the partners made the difficult decision to not to move forward with releasing the Iowa Poll.”

David Chalian, CNN’s political director, said CNN and the Register had decided to not release the poll “out of an abundance of caution”.

The television network had planned an hour-long special based around the results of the poll.

Lis Smith, a senior advisor on communications for Mr Buttigieg, confirmed that the Indiana mayor’s campaign had raised concerns about the accuracy of the results.

“Our campaign received a report from a recipient of the Iowa Poll call, raising concerns that not every candidate was named by the interviewer when asked who they support,” Ms Smith said.

“We shared this with the organisations behind the poll, who conducted an internal investigation and determined not to release it. We applaud CNN and the Des Moines Register for their integrity.”

The Iowa poll is conducted by telephone and sees operators read from a script of candidates’ names to ask voters who they plan to support.

In this case, one operator reportedly enlarged the font size on their computer screen and cut off Mr Buttigieg’s name from the list of candidates, according to sources for the Times.

This problem may have also affected other candidates because the list of names is randomly reordered after every phone call.

Recent polls have shown as many as four candidates in the running to win the influential caucus, which is the first major contest of the US presidential primary season and has long been a strong indicator for who will win the nomination.

Senator Bernie Sanders led the most recent Register/CNN poll at the start of January by three per cent.

The Vermont senator is currently leading in polls by 3.6 per cent, according to analysis by RealClearPolitics, ahead of former vice president Joe Biden after a late surge in the final weeks of January.

Mr Buttigieg and senator Elizabeth Warren are further behind in third and fourth place, polling at about 15 per cent, according to RealClearPolitics.

On Saturday, Mr Sanders held a “caucus concert” with indie-rock band Vampire Weekend in Cedar Rapids, featuring appearances from filmmaker Michael Moore and philosopher Cornel West.