Trump is making the case for the wall but in reality the border ‘crisis’ is entirely of his making

Analysis: The president has misrepresented what is actually happening on the ground and that will not change

Donald Trump is putting his case to America for the US-Mexico border wall to be funded – despite the fact many of the current issues can be traced back to the president.

The border “crisis” will become the 32nd active national emergency in the US if the president decides to go that far. Some of those emergencies – relating to Iran and other long-term issues – stretch back to previous administrations including Bill Clinton’s. Even ignoring that fact, the picture Mr Trump paints of the border bears little relation to the situation on the ground. His portrayal is solely to energise his staunchest supporters.

The president likes to claim that illegal immigrants are streaming across the border, a fact he highlights whenever teargas is used on the rare occasion the border is rushed by some of those waiting on the Mexico side. However, the fact is that illegal border crossings have fallen dramatically over the last two decades from 1.6 million in 2000 to about 400,000 in 2018 – with the recession having removed many of the jobs that such immigrants would seek to fill.

In 2017 that number hit a low of 310,000, with Mr Trump’s push for increased border enforcement having an effect, as well as fear about future policies keeping people away. It is this sort of case that Mr Trump uses to try to convince the nation, whether from the Oval Office or otherwise, but it misrepresents what is happening.

Most illegal immigrants to the US do not come across border on foot, but instead outstay their visas having been granted legal entry to America. Around two-thirds of undocumented immigrants are said to become that way after entering legally. If Mr Trump wants to really tackle the problem, he should be looking at that issue rather than concentrating on the border.

It is the same circumstances with the idea suspected terrorists are crossing the border with Mexico en masse; in reality the majority of suspected terrorists caught by US authorities are at airports.

The reason Mr Trump has not yet declared a national emergency, and may not do so, is that he can use the rhetoric in speeches such as the one at the White House without actually having to get into a thorny legal issue.

And Mr Trump would almost certainly face a legal challenge if he makes good on his threat to get funding for a US-Mexico border wall by declaring a national emergency and circumventing Congress’s signoff.

Legal scholars said it was unclear how such a step would play out, but they agreed a court test would likely focus on whether an emergency actually exists on the southern border, and on the limits of presidential power over taxpayer funds.

Mr Trump triggered the partial shutdown last month by demanding that more than $5bn (£3.93bn) in funding to pay for part of his wall be part of any legislation to fully reopen agencies whose funding expired on 22 December. The wall was a key campaign promise for the president in 2016, and he has reacted to bad press from networks like Fox News over the possibility he is not pushing his hardest for it as part of the latest negotiations to reopen the government.

The longest government shutdown lasted 21 days, and with day 19 of he latest closure being on Wednesday, Mr Trump is clearly looking for a way to appease his supporters while also appearing to be seeking to bring Democrats to the table. It is a delicate balancing act. Mr Trump’s address to the nation will push his case to supporters hard, but contain no substantive action on the border wall.

In reality it is the increase in families on the southern border that is leading to long waits and a buildup of people.

Many detention centres are ill-equipped to deal with housing families, as opposed to individuals, and the long wait to apply for asylum has led some to seek to cross illegally and then deal with their situation on the US side of the border. The recent two cases of children having died in the custody of US authorities has increased scrutiny of how families are treated, but you are unlikely to hear Mr Trump talk expansively about it.

The rhetoric from the president will not change; talking about crime, despite many counties lining the border being statistically safer than other parts of the nation, terrorism and a crisis at the border. But the case he is putting to the American people misrepresents what the situation needs. It will fire up his supporter base but will not bring us any closer to fixing the issue.