Pressure mounts to take cities before winter

War on terrorism: Strategy

American political and military leaders are under mounting diplomatic and humanitarian pressure to conclude the main part of the military operations before the onset of winter and the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

As the campaign enters its third week, two cities are now pivotal, analysts say: the capital, Kabul, whose fall would send the clearest message to the Taliban that their regime is doomed; and the northern centre of Mazar-i-Sharif.

Yesterday saw a second successive wave of American air attacks against Taliban lines north of Kabul, confirming indications from the Secretary of State, Colin Powell, that Washington wanted to see the capture of Kabul soon, "before winter strikes".

But the campaign for Kabul is being heavily conditioned by the diplomatic scramble to work out how to put a widely acceptable successor government in place, and disagreement between Pakistan, Iran and other interested parties over whether moderate elements in the Taliban should participate.

Pakistan, where the government of General Pervez Musharraf is under heavy internal pressure from Taliban sympathisers, is adamant that the Northern Alliance – which is mostly composed of Afghanistan's ethnic minorities and so represents only 15 per cent of the population – should not take power on its own.

But General Musharraf also wants the war to end quickly to avoid a build-up of opposition among Muslims angered by the war. "One would hope the campaign comes to an end before the month of Ramadan," General Musharraf told CNN last night, warning of the "negative effects in the Muslim world" if the air and ground strikes continued.

America and its allies have less than four weeks before the onset of bad weather and the start of Ramadan on 17 November seriously begin to threaten the campaign.

Tony Blair seemed to be referring to this deadline when he said that "the next few weeks will be the most testing time".

But if the military, diplomatic and political pieces have not fallen into place by then, both Washington and the Northern Alliance on the ground in Afghanistan have signalled that the fighting is likely to continue unabated.

The Northern Alliance has said it will not let Ramadan interfere with its campaign, and the Pentagon has given no indication that it will bow to Islamic sensibilities.

At the weekend, General Richard Myers, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was blunt. "We're doing it in a measured way," he said. "It may take until next spring, it may take until next summer – it may take longer than that in Afghanistan."

General Myers appeared to be talking for a cautious faction within the Pentagon. Despite the relative ease with which the special force units operated in and around the southern city of Kandahar, these officials are wary of incurring future casualties.

Winter, however, will dictate the shape of the war. Though the British have hinted at more visible – and thus, by implication, larger – ground operations in the near future, these are unlikely to take the form of a conventional ground invasion.

Barring a Taliban collapse and the elimination of Osama bin Laden and his followers in the al-Qa'ida networks, the mix of air strikes, operations by the Northern Alliance and commando raids will continue. But they will be closely co- ordinated with political and diplomatic efforts to build a new Government.

For all the optimistic pronouncements made in Washington since the air strikes began, there has been no confirmation of defections by moderate elements within the Taliban who, Washington hoped, might switch allegiance and support a new government.

General Myers also admitted that American forces had not managed to pinpoint the whereabouts of Mr bin Laden. However, he denied reports that the area where Mr bin Laden was suspected to be hiding had been narrowed to some 400 square miles. The search was continuing over a larger area, he said.