Germany boosts Turkey's hopes of EU talks in 2004

Turkey's prospects of winning a date to start talks on its EU membership have been given a boost by support from key European capitals. Diplomats want to close a deal at a summit next month.

In one of his clearest declarations of support for Ankara, the German Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, called on the EU yesterday to send Turkey a strong "signal" of encouragement at the forthcoming Copenhagen summit. "The real question now is to decide a date, not for Turkey's accession to the EU, but for the start of entry talks," Mr Schröder said.

Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, the Portuguese Prime Minister, said that excluding Turkey from the EU on the basis of religion would be a "grave error".

Hopes are now rising that a deal can be struck in Copenhagen to give new impetus to Turkey's membership ambitions while resolving the division of Cyprus. Ankara's willingness to help to reunite the island, partitioned since 1974, is now a central issue.

The new Turkish government is pressing hard to start negotiations because history shows that, once nations begin formal membership talks with the EU, an invitation to join inevitably follows. Because of its poor human rights record, Turkey has lagged behind others with its application and, with demographers predicting that the country would be an expanded EU's most populous nation by 2020, its candidature is highly controversial.

Claims by Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, the former French president who chairs an inquiry into the future of Europe, that Turkish membership would be "the end of the EU", seem to have backfired.

The government in Paris was forced to disown M. Giscard's comments, although it has not declared for or against giving Turkey a starting date for talks.

Behind the scenes, Washington has been lobbying for its ally, and Berlin is anxious to mend fences with the Americans after the dispute over Mr Schröder's opposition to any possible war in Iraq.

Any formula to offer Turkey a start date for talks, perhaps in 2004, will be conditional on it implementing key human rights and democratic reforms. One idea being proposed is for a conditional date to be set with progress to be reviewed next year. Less acceptable to Ankara is a plan for EU leaders to agree to meet on a specified date to consider when talks should start.

The deal Turkey gets will, though, be dependent on what help it can give the EU in two areas. The Danish presidency of the EU is looking for Turkey to remove its veto on allowing the EU's embryonic military force guaranteed access to Nato's planning facilities. Diplomats say that agreement is almost complete.

More sensitive is the EU's desire for Ankara to pressure Turkish Cypriots to agree to a United Nations plan to end the division of their island. The issue is pressing because Cyprus will be invited to join the EU during the meeting in Copenhagen. One EU diplomat said: "A deal on Cyprus would play a huge role in determining what Turkey could get, or could not get."

THE EUROPEAN PRESS

From an editorial in the 'Turkish Daily News'

Turks are mobilised to convince Europeans that we are worthy of a place in Europe and are prepared to shoulder all the necessary responsibilities to achieve this.

Erdogan has shown his qualities in courting European heads of government. But success lies in two areas. The government must lay the legal groundwork for a civilised contemporary democracy and second, make a serious response to the UN on Cyprus.

Once all this is done Turkey will surely get a "date" for a date for the accession talks to start. This will be acceptable provided the EU summit declaration contains the right words.