Triumphant Ahern turns to familiar allies in new political landscape

The Irish political system was working yesterday to absorb the implications of a general election which has left a greatly changed political landscape.

The new government which is to be installed next month will most likely be a recreation of the last administration, a coalition headed by Bertie Ahern's Fianna Fail party with the support of the smaller Progressive Democrats (PDs).

Both parties increased their seats in the election, Fianna Fail to 80 and the PDs to eight, as many voters, in essence, decided not to change what they regarded as a reasonably effective team. But the election also produced tremendous upheaval among opposition parties, with votes dramatically draining from the right-wing Fine Gael party whose leader, Michael Noonan, has resigned.

Labour held its traditional position as the third-largest party but made no gains, one observer describing it as becalmed. The most striking gains were made by the Greens, with six seats, Sinn Fein with five and by a collection of 14 independents. These three elements will have 25 of the Dail's 165 seats, clearly indicating a splintering of old voting patterns.

The election has thus produced an odd mixture of probable continuity in government but an almost unprecedented shake-up of the system. One of the strengths of the past administration was that it combined Fianna Fail, traditionally centre-left and populist, with the PDs who are on the right. Although the two parties did not fight the election in con-cert, voters seemed to approve of this span of opinion.

Mr Ahern has already said his first preference is to bring the PDs back into government, and he and the PD leader, Mary Harney, have already been making guarded statements about this.

The increase in PD seats has led to speculation that Ms Harney will be seeking more cabinet places for her party. It raises the intriguing possibility of Mr Ahern having as a cabinet member Michael McDowell, an outspoken and colourful PD member. During the campaign Mr McDowell savagely attacked Mr Ahern's hope of building a new national stadium in Dublin, describing it as "Ceausescu-style". This must have been wounding for Mr Ahern, who regards it as his pet project, but it is not expected to form an insuperable obstacle to another Fianna Fail/PD administration.