How the poorest will pay for US smokers

The tobacco industry faces a pounds 220bn health settlement in America

The Landscape of America is about to change. With his knowing eyes and cowboy complexion, the Marlboro Man is shortly to step down from billboards across the nation and ride away to the horizon. Following behind, doubtless in an open-top roadster with his billiard cue across the backseat, will be the ineffably cool Joe Camel. Whither do they flee? To Poland, China, Vietnam and South America.

Last month the US tobacco giants entered the landmark deal in the US to bow to sweeping new controls on their operations and to pay out $368bn (pounds 219bn) over 25 years in return for protection from the raft of legal challenges ranged against them. This autumn, assuming Congress approves the terms of the settlement, Marlboro Man will finally ride into the sunset. Cigarette makers will be barred from using any human images in their advertising, as well as cartoon figures such as Joe Camel.

Marlboro Man, around since the 1950s, is the most successful image in the history of cigarette advertising. "Marlboro Country" commercialised the dream of the American West, in the image of the loner who mixed manliness and wanderlust. Marlboro Man's star was waning well before the settlement was announced - at least two models for the Marlboro cowboy ads died of lung cancer. But while the deal's fate in the US is itselfunsure, what will it mean for the rest of the world?

Answer: plenty. Already, the tobacco combines - Philip Morris and British American Tobacco (BAT) foremost among them - have been strenuously increasing sales abroad. Last year, for the first time, exports accounted for half of net revenue at Philip Morris, owner of the Marlboro brand. For US manufacturers generally, exports grew 260 per cent from 1986 to 1996, of which 40 per cent went to Asia.

If the US deal becomes law that yearning for foreign markets will intensify. Take Philip Morris. Last year its earnings hit about $7bn - roughly equivalent to what it will have to pay out annually under the US settlement. It will need extra revenue. Some will come from raising prices in the US. Probably more will come from growth abroad.

Anti-smoking advocates are stirring in London, Brussels, Canada, Israel and Australia. Governments are considering bills that would allow lawsuits against cigarette makers. But no one is better at insinuating themselves into the cultures and hearts of countries - especially Third World countries - than the traveling duo of Joe and the Marlboro Man.