What happens if Donald Trump moves the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem?

Observers worry controversial decision could spark violence and signal the US is no longer interested in pursuing a two-state solution

A Palestinian Muslim worshipper prays in front of the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem's al-Aqsa mosque compound prior to the third Friday prayers of the holy Muslim fasting month of Ramadan on June 24, 2016 (Ahmad Gharabli/AFP/Getty Images)

Newly inaugurated US President Donald Trump appears to be making good on his inflammatory campaign trail promise to move the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

Over the years several US presidential candidates have made the same pledge in an effort to reach out to Jewish American voters and assure Israel that strong relations with the country are a high priority for their administration, but none have followed through with the plan once reaching office.

However, White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer confirmed on Sunday that Mr Trump’s team is indeed in the “beginning stages” of discussions that would precede such a symbolic decision.

Relocating the embassy would be impossible to pull off smoothly: parts of Jerusalem were annexed by Israel during the 1967 Six Day War, and the city is claimed by both Israelis and Palestinians as their capital.

The Trump administration appears to be moving forward far more cautiously than the president’s campaign trail rhetoric would have suggested.

While several prominent Israeli politicians are delighted that Mr Trump appears to be sticking to his promise, other observers say issues such as peace with the Palestinians, the threat of Iran and the violence engulfing neighbouring Syria are much higher on Israel’s priority list.

The major departure from existing US policy could not only set back the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, but possibly trigger new violence in the already volatile region.

While a full-blown intifada is unlikely over what is largely a symbolic move, “It’s not just moving the embassy and be done with it," Michael Koplaw, policy director of the Israel Policy Forum, told The Jerusalem Post.

"People need to consider if it’s worth one Israeli, Palestinian or American life to move the embassy to Jerusalem.”

Destroying the peace process ‘as good as a declaration of war’

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has written to both President Trump and several other world leaders to warn that moving the embassy could massively derail the already deadlocked Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

One senior Fatah official called the potential move “as good as a declaration of war” earlier this month.

The relocation, which effectively would recognise Israel’s right to the city over Palestinian claims, could signal the US is not interested in pursuing a two-state solution, despite Mr Trump’s claims that he will broker a successful peace deal in the intractable conflict.

“By moving the embassy, the United States risks losing any hope to portray itself an as honest broker or negotiator between Israel and Palestinians, and risks sending a message to the Palestinians that Washington is no longer interested [in their cause]”, Israeli journalist Anna Aronheim wrote on Friday.

‘Scenarios of worsening violence in Israel’

Jerusalem has already seen an upswing in stabbings and shooting attacks in the last 18 months in what has been dubbed the ‘Jerusalem intifada’.

Haaretz reported on Friday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet has met for special consultations with police, security services and the Israel Defence Force (IDF) in preparedness for “scenarios of worsening violence” if the US does move its embassy to the city.

Army officials warned they expected violence could also spread to the West Bank.

Triggering an anti-Israel and anti-US ‘explosion’ across the wider region

Anti-Israel and anti-US riots in Muslim-majority countries across the world are a very real possibility since the the issue involves Jerusalem, where several Muslim holy sites are located.

“The Arab world has enormous interest in the Haram al-Sharif, as it is called, the Temple Mount, the Dome [of the Rock], and it is a holy site for the Arab world,“ former US Secretary of State John Kerry told CBS last week, saying that moving the US’ embassy could trigger an “explosion” across the region.

A relocation would also have “a profound impact” on neighbouring allies Jordan and Egypt, Mr Kerry said, lowering their motivation to be “as supportive and engaged with Israel as they are today.”

The Palestinian Authority’s Mahmoud Abbas has met with Jordan’s King Abdullah II to agree a list of steps the two countries would take if the US does indeed move its embassy.