Spectre of coalition hangs over Sharon

With just two daysuntil Israel votes in national elections, the polls predict such a clear a victory for Ariel Sharon that thoughts have already turned to the kind of coalition government he might form.

A weekend poll for Ma'ariv newspaper predicted that Mr Sharon's Likud Party would win the most seats in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, with 32, while the main opposition Labour Party, whose leader, Amram Mitzna, promised to restart peace negotiations with the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, would win 19. If the polls are right – the pollsters have been wrong before, and many voters are still undecided – it would give Mr Sharon a resounding mandate to remain Prime Minister, suggesting that the election will have changed little.

It also appears to represent a vote of confidence in Mr Sharon's hardline approach to handling the conflict with the Palestinians. But, a poll for the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper found that most voters were unhappy with his handling of the economy.

In many ways, the election has turned into an approval vote for Mr Sharon. He has been Likud's greatest electoral asset. But there is still a looming problem. For most voters, the polls suggest, the ideal outcome would be a "national unity" coalition of Likud, Labour and a third party, Shinui, with Mr Sharon as Prime Minister.

But Mr Mitzna says Labour would not serve under Mr Sharon. That would force Mr Sharon to go into coalition with the far right, and probably with religious parties too. An alliance with religious parties would be unpopular with the secular majority, and Mr Sharon says he does not want a coalition with the far right. He is still thought to be keen to secure a coalition with Labour.

Policy-wise, Mr Sharon says he will pursue the "two-state solution" called for by the US President, George Bush, which includes the establishment of a Palestinian state. The far right would oppose that.

The state's borders would be controlled by Israel and it would not be allowed to make alliances with "enemies of Israel". But Mr Sharon said there could be no new negotiations until Mr Arafat was replaced as leader.