How Saddam could wreak his dying vengeance on the allies

The political and military calculation in Washington is that the Second Gulf War will be a short affair, shaped by overwhelming US air superiority and firepower, which will quickly break Iraq's will to resist. But assuming that Saddam Hussein's troops and aides stay loyal and no mass civil uprising erupts against him, he could put up formidable resistance in several ways.

The first possibility would be pre-emptive: an attack, perhaps employing chemical or germ weapons, against coalition warships in the northern Gulf, or against American and British troops massed to invade.

A simulation US wargame last year showed this tactic could be alarmingly effective, and may have started in real life. Yesterday, The New York Times said the Iraqi army had sent "a large number" of fishing vessels into waters where aircraft carriers and warships are waiting, ready to launch planes and missiles in the first wave of attacks. US military officials said American troops opened fire on the boats, fearing they were carrying bombs.

Pentagon officials also say President Saddam has moved artillery capable of firing chemical or biological shells into positions south of Baghdad against oncoming coalition forces. But to use weapons of mass destruction would confirm that Washington and London were right all along in declaring Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.

Almost certainly, such an attack would swing world opinion against the Iraqi leader, depriving him of a potential trump card were the conflict to drag on. The belief of experts here is that time is on President Saddam's side. The longer he can resist and the higher the number of casualties, the greater will be the international clamour for an end to the war.

Another way to slow a drive to Baghdad would be to torch Iraqi oil wells, or blow dams on the Euphrates and flood the Mesopotamian plains. Intelligence reports suggest large quantities of explosives have been moved to the oil fields.

A further complication feared by some US strategists is an outbreak of civil unrest between different factions or ethnic and religious groups as the American-led coalition presses north. This could force advancing commanders to divert troops to maintain order, weakening the force as it closes on the capital.

The total of US and British ground troops available is less than 150,000. The coalition is well short of the five full armoured divisions many specialists believed was needed for a full ground assault. Nor, because of Turkey's refusal to permit 62,000 US troops to deploy on its territory, will there be the large second front in the north to bear down on Baghdad in a classic pincer movement.

This, in turn, will make it easier for President Saddam's commanders to split Republican Guard units and spread them into civilian centres. That is already said to be happening in northern parts of the country. Iraqi troops will be much tougher targets from the air, and harder to attack on the ground without the heavy civilian casualties the US wants to avoid.

All this could set the stage for the widely touted "Stalingrad" or "Berlin 1945" scenario dreaded by US and British strategists. The state-of-the-art weaponry of US forces would count for less. Baghdad, with its population of five million, and probably President Saddam's clan stronghold of Tikrit, could become bloody urban killing grounds that would be seen on television around the world. The Iraqi dictator would perish as a latter-day Hitler, causing the maximum carnage and chaos as he died.

Iraqi deployments suggest the regime may be ready to cede the south of the country with little resistance. Whether the pre-emptive strikes work, President Saddam's plan seems to be to fall back to defensive rings around the capital. Reportedly, trenches have been dug and filled with oil ready to be set ablaze.

Within the city, Iraqi forces have probably dug into strong defensive positions in buildings, tunnels and even sewers. US officials claim some elite Iraqi troops have been issued with copies of US and British uniforms. They say President Saddam may turn them on his own civilians, and try to create the impression invading forces were committing atrocities.

But all the above is imponderable. The extent of the resistance will depend ultimately on how ready Iraqis are to fight for a man who has led them into two disastrous wars and international isolation, especially when they have been subjected to the savage "shock and awe" precision air attacks that will start the conflict.

And the US military says that it, too, is equipped for street-fighting. Soldiers have night-vision equipment, as well as fibre-optic scopes to see around corners, and drone aircraft with video cameras, giving live, overhead views of battles.

Most Iraqi government facilities and strong-points are in large, exposed compounds, said Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq specialist at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies here. "These can be totally destroyed from the air with little fear of collateral damage," he wrote recently.

The final possibility is an attack on Israel, using whatever Scud missiles Iraq still has, possibly with chemical or biological warheads. As President Saddam's regime crumbled about him, he would be gambling on drawing retaliation from the Jewish state, in the hope of provoking a wider Arab/Israeli conflict, and chaos through the region and beyond.

Iraq's High Command

Commander, central area: Qusay Hussein

Younger son of President Saddam and heir apparent. In charge of Baghdad and Tikrit, his father's hometown, and responsible for intelligence and security, including the elite Republican Guard in Baghdad, which consists of 26,000 men.

Commander, internal security and communication: Uday Hussein

Elder son. Will run the internal security forces and co-ordinate orders from the regions if communications with central command break down. He is prone to outbursts and was nearly killed in 1996.

Commander, southern region: General Ali Hassan al-Majid

Cousin of Saddam Hussein. Now in charge of the region including the city of Basra, from which invasion is most likely to come. Known as "Chemical Ali" for allegedly orchestrating gassing of Kurdish villages in 1988.

Commander, northern region: General Izzat Ibrahim Douri

One of the Iraqi leader's most trusted advisersand an important tribal figure. Defending the most oil-rich region, which the US and the Kurds ­ and possibly Turkey, if it decides to "join" the war in order to capture new, valuable territory ­ are expected to be eager to control. He is wanted for crimes against Kurds in 1988 and for the invasion of Kuwait in 1990.

Commander, central Euphrates area: Mizban Khadr Hadi

A little-known member of the ruling Revolutionary Command Council, chaired by Saddam Hussein. Chosen most probably because of the tribal loyalties in the area to the Baath party.