The real question isn't where to travel, but how

"Is anywhere safe?", a friend asked on Friday night. The day's newspapers told a story of carnage in Kenya with chilling reverberations of the previous month's attack on Bali.

Is anywhere safe? Dozens of countries are chorusing "We are", and looking forward to a dividend in the form of extra tourists. You will search in vain for a decent room at a bargain price in the Caribbean this Christmas. But the blunt answer to the question is (a) Bali and (b) Kenya. The best time to fly on an airline is just after a fatal accident, when everyone suddenly remembers what they are meant to be doing; similarly, there is a rationality to visiting places shortly after death and destruction have been visited upon them.

Is anywhere safe? Not according to the Foreign Office, which urges "worldwide caution" against terrorism.

No matter that the number of British holidaymakers who die at the hands of terrorists is a tiny proportion of those who perish in drownings. But, if you dip into the Government's travel advice website, you will learn that Indonesia is not safe, but Israel is. Really? A cynical traveller could easily conclude that the Foreign Office advice owes more to political expediency than a proper calculation of risk.

The real question is not where, but how to travel. The blasts that caused Bali and Mombasa to be erased from the list of desirable destinations have turned off the tap of tourism upon which communities depend, and exacerbated the gap between the rich West and the poor rest. This suits evil people determined to intensify conflict.

So how should you travel? Few tourists can hope to melt into the background, so the options are either to move upmarket or to trade down. Package tourits are the easiest targets for terrorists. High spenders who stay in small, opulent hotels are safer, as are backpackers: eating in local restaurants and travelling on local buses are pretty good ways to avoid a massacre. Either way, the host community wins: rich visitors create employment, while backpackers' spending stays in the local economy. Wise spending can address inequalities – and minimise personal risk.