Why Arsenal should believe they can win the Champions League

As the Gunners head to PSV for the last-16 encounter, Mikel Arteta warned that his injury-hit squad still have the ‘gears to reach a different level’

Inside the Philips Stadion, there are reminders of PSV Eindhoven’s past, celebrations of former centre-forwards such as Romario, Ronaldo Nazario and Ruud van Nistelrooy who have graced the club and tormented defenders. As he walked along the corridors between the executive suites, Mikel Arteta could have been given a reminder of what he is missing.

It is carnival week in Eindhoven and plenty of people are descending on the Dutch city in fancy dress. Whether any have come in the garb of an Arsenal goalscorer or will impersonate a striker, even for a night, remains to be seen. The probability is that Mikel Merino will be leading the line for Arsenal in the Netherlands; the scorer of the Gunners’ only goals in their last four games but a midfielder by trade. With Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus injured, with Gabriel Martinelli only on the way back, with Raheem Sterling’s only goal this season coming against Preston, it may be Merino in attack.

“It is a beautiful challenge, especially up front,” said Jurrien Timber. It is an optimistic way of putting it. Another is to point out that PSV have defensive difficulties: since springing one of the surprises in the knockout play-off round, they have faced Go Ahead Eagles twice, losing both matches and conceding five goals to a side only seventh in the Eredivisie. “What I see is ahead is a team that has eliminated Juventus, with a history, so I know the difficulty,” said Arteta, paying PSV due respect.

It was a painful February for Arsenal as dropped points added to forward absences (Getty)

If Arsenal’s attack is the resistible force, perhaps PSV’s defence is the movable object. A tie of teams meeting for the third consecutive year may be a clash of opposites. The Dutch champions can both score and concede; the perennial English runners-up sometimes do neither.

But there may be a path to progress amid the lack of drama. “For any team, I think when you look at the history of the team, that they’ve been very successful, the defensive record is critical,” said Arteta. England’s last two Champions League winners had identical records in that respect: Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea conceded just three goals in seven knockout matches in 2021, Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City a mere three at the equivalent stage in 2023.

The Arsenal rearguard has earned many a compliment for its organisation and obduracy in recent years. There is statistical proof of its excellence. The north Londoners had the second-best defensive record in group stages, bettered only by Inter. “We have only conceded three goals and the lowest expected goals,” added Arteta. “That is great and a big platform.”

They kicked off the group stage with clean sheets against Atalanta and Paris Saint-Germain. Even as Arteta’s attacking options have been reduced, his defensive ones have increased. Timber welcomed the added competition from Ben White’s return to fitness although, with only two substitute appearances, the Englishman may be unlikely to make a first start in almost four months on Tuesday. On the other flank, meanwhile, Myles Lewis-Skelly, suspended for the stalemate at Nottingham Forest, is available again.

That was a draining, depressing night for Arsenal; along with the defeat to West Ham, the end of an ambition, at least for a year, to win the Premier League. A different competition offers a different incentive. “A game to change the narrative,” said Timber. If Arsenal have been labouring and toiling domestically, Arteta feels they could have a spring in their step. “It’s a game that really brings a different energy,” he said. “It’s a competition that puts everybody on their toes.”

It is a competition in which Arsenal have acquitted themselves well since Arteta ended their exile. They were knocked out by Bayern Munich last season; avoid defeat in the Netherlands and a home record of eight wins and a draw in nine home Champions League games bodes well.

Arsenal’s defensive record can give them confidence as they turn to knockout football (Getty)

It could be a very open competition. Coming third in the group stage does not necessarily make Arsenal third favourites but there is a plausible route to the quarter-finals for them, whereas Manchester City have already fallen by the wayside and either Bayern or Bayer Leverkusen, Real or Atletico Madrid, and PSG or Liverpool will follow suit. Can Arsenal win the competition? “It’s an ambition,” added Arteta, while stressing his focus was purely on PSV.

There is a sense in which Arsenal have untapped potential: not so much defensively, but if they can add goals, if they can produce the sort of performances they mustered against PSG and Manchester City in knockout football. “And the fact that we have still gears, even with the players that we have, to take the game to a different level,” said Arteta. “When it comes to that stage, it’s about lifting the level and the standards.” Defensively, Arsenal can set the standards. They just need a goal or two.