Champions League draw: Arsenal hope to avoid Barcelona and Real Madrid in bid to end last-16 hoodoo

Arsenal keep drawing top teams in the last-16 after finishing second in the group stage, but that could continue this year as they are in Pot 2 for Friday's draw in Monaco

Arsene Wenger has continued to struggle in the Champions League (Getty)

There was a time, more than 10 years ago now, when Arsenal teams used to rip their way through English football, hoarding the domestic trophies as they went. They were never as good in Europe, and looking back their reaching the final in 2006 looks less a slip and more of a peak of achievement.

The shame of the last 10 years is that rather than lifting their European performance up to their domestic level, the two have sunk together towards mediocrity. Their Premier League finishes from 2006 to 2015 were all in the narrow corridor of third and fourth. This year, finally, they escaped it by moving up to second after Tottenham broke down on the final stretch.

In Europe, though, Arsenal are even deeper into the mud, even more locked into the old approach that delivers the same unsatisfactory results year on year. For the last six seasons in a row, the length of two Arsene Wenger contracts, Arsenal have gone out at the last-16 stage every single time.

Tomorrow Arsenal will be drawn again into the group stage of this year’s competition. And the problem is that the new structure of the Champions League group stage seeding makes it likely that Arsenal will go the same way this time.

While Arsenal’s six last-16 defeats have almost all come against superior opposition, that does not make them unfortunate. Arsenal lost twice to Barcelona and twice to Bayern Munich, but those ties were a fair reward for their failure to win their group. Arsenal have escape from the group stage every year since 2000. But they have only won their group once – in 2011-12 – from the last six seasons. This is why Arsenal keep drawing seeds in the last 16, and why they keep getting knocked out.

Up until last year, this slip into second was careless. Arsenal were seeded for the Champions League group stage every year from 2001-02 up until 2014-15. Whether they were winning the Premier League or not, their accumulated points ensured them a place in the top pot. This meant an easier group stage draw, with lesser teams. When they failed to win their groups in recent years, it was because they finished second to teams who were seeded beneath them: Shakhtar Donetsk, Schalke 04 and Borussia Dortmund twice. All good sides, but even the best of them in Dortmund at that point past their peak.

But last season was different. Uefa have changed how seeding works, ensuring that top pot is all teams who won their league last season. This means that non-champions who rank highly – the Arsenal story for the last 11 years – now find themselves in Pot 2. That is what happened last year, then, as Arsenal drew German champions Bayern Munich, came second, and inevitably faced holders Barcelona in the last-16. They lost 5-1.

Tomorrow Arsenal may face the same dilemma. They are stuck in Pot 2, while all of the champion teams are in Pot 1. Even under the old seeding system Arsenal might have missed out on top seeding given the gradual decay of their ranking points. This means that Arsenal are at risk of facing Real Madrid, Barcelona, Juventus or Bayern Munich from the top pot. They will be desperately hoping that it is CSKA Moscow instead.

There are good and bad teams in the other pots but Arsenal and Manchester City are both fortunate that they cannot draw by far the best team in Pot 3, Tottenham Hotspur. They will want to avoid Olympique Lyonnais, Sporting Lisbon or FC Basel, if they can. Then in Pot 4 the two strongest teams are yet to qualify, with Red Bull Salzburg and Borussia Monchengladach waiting to go through. Celtic, Monaco and Besiktas would not be easy opponents either.

Arsenal, then, will be desperate for some good news from Monaco tomorrow. With a generous draw they can hope to win their group, for the first time in years, be seeded for the last-16 and push beyond. But after so many years of inertia at the Emirates, not many Arsenal fans are expecting anything different.