There will be no happy riot for Italy against Sweden, only a sigh of relief... or the unthinkable fallout

Sweden hold a 1-0 lead ahead of the second leg at the San Siro

Italy face the ultimate indignity of not making it to Russia next summer (Getty)

It is a curious phenomenon, the happy riot.

Of course, that is an improvised name but how else to describe what occurred in Belgium – and, to a smaller extent, the Netherlands – this week as Morocco qualified for the World Cup and a number of supporters ran amok, setting alight to cars, smashing up shops and eventually being given the most unceremonious showering by a water cannon? All because they’re overjoyed at qualification.

That said, the alternative is even bleaker and something that Argentina were lucky to avoid last month when they squeaked through to the World Cup. Their spiritual cousins Italy are the next team whose fate might press a glut of riot shields and batons into action should Sweden manage to eliminate them in Milan tonight.

San Siro is an imposing place and Italy will have to lean heavily on that aura of intimidation because that is the Azzurri’s main strength now – a bold history of success but a questionable present, a lack of talent and potentially crushing mismanagement.

Even at Euro 2016, before their opening fixture against Belgium, Italian journalists argued over whether that was the worst squad their nation had ever sent to a major tournament. Some argued that the 1950s had seen weaker efforts but the details were inconsequential, really. This is not a classic vintage of Azzurri player.

Antonio Conte was the most talented coach at Euro 2016 and it wasn’t really close. He went into the tournament as the only tactician to have won a major European league in the last five years and, amid a gaggle of past-it coaches waiting for retirement and under-qualified former players finding their feet, his nous stood out. Italy overachieved, stunning tournament dark horses Belgium and dumping out Spain before being knocked out by world champions Germany on penalties.

Gian Piero Ventura has coached in Italy his whole life (Getty)

Italy still have largely the same personnel that Conte made competitive but they no longer have the man himself. In his place Gian Piero Ventura has tried to make something of this rabble, a rabble probably better than the ‘worst squad ever’ as described before Euro 2016 but hardly the sort of players that future generations will be talking about – unless, perhaps, to say “you’ll never believe who Italy had starting up front in the quarter-final of a major tournament!”

Ventura has paid the price for some things that are beyond his control and that extends further than the quality of the players. Fifa’s world ranking system – so successfully gamed by Poland and Switzerland to improve their prospects – has little importance except when it comes to seedings and qualification draws. Italy, having slid a little in Fifa’s soda-sponsored list, were lumped in with Spain in qualifying and thus were always likely to head to a playoff if they couldn’t exploit Julen Lopetegui’s inexperience.

This team could go down as one of the worst Italian sides ever (Getty)

Predictably La Roja were too strong and Italy mowed down their weaker group rivals. The Azzurri would end up with more points than two group winners but that is not the game here, the game, from the moment they knew they would be heading to a knockout playoff, was to prepare the best team possible and that is something they haven’t done. The blame for that lies with Ventura.

Tactically he has been as poor as he has been indecisive. Drawing at home to Spain was fine, but going with a gung-ho 4-2-4 away from home was suicidal and the 3-0 defeat that night condemned them to where they are now. Or, at least, the playoffs in general.

They went to Sweden as favourites but again bungled things, with bizarre selection and a sterile 3-5-2 look to blame. It is too easy to point out that Ciro Immobile was, well, immobile. Paired with Andrea Belotti, the appearance was of a team not too dissimilar to the Graziano Pelle and Eder strike duo that, ahem… graced Euro 2016. Marco Tardelli and Paolo Rossi they are not.

With Lorenzo Insigne one of Europe’s best forwards this season, it is unthinkable that there be no space for the Napoli man. Nor his teammate, Jorginho, whose excellence at club level is going unrewarded while Marco Parolo and the ageing Daniele De Rossi are still shoehorned into this midfield.

De Rossi might be a bigger problem as he is one of the ring-leaders behind secret meetings between senior players that only serve to undermine a coach just 90 minutes away from national infamy on the Italian peninsula. There would be no greater ignominy for an Italian football coach than to be the man who deprived this nation of a summer watching the mondiali. Ventura has spent his entire career coaching in this country and is under no illusions of the impact of failure.

Tonight, though, they must be fuelled more by fire than failure. The atmosphere at San Siro will be crucial and there is a feeling that Sweden could be bowed by that, but should the hosts concede a goal the fear has to be that this Italy side, Ventura’s Italy side, could not score three times.

The result would be unthinkable, the fallout unspeakable, but it is a reality that hangs over Italy.

By tonight we will know. But even qualification wouldn’t see any hint of a happy riot, just a national sigh of relief.