Roy Hodgson wary of draw for the European Championship finals despite devalued Euro zone

Expansion means reaching France 2016 finals should be easy. But ahead of today's draw, the England manager recalls the lesson of Montenegro

Hodgson is not convinced Gerrard is working any less hard

The ludicrous expansion of the European Championship finals to 24 nations, a bloating caused by political vote-buying as well as football administrators' omnipresent desire for more revenue, suggests today's qualifying draw in Nice is largely irrelevant to England. After all, when the top three will go through in more groups than not, and each group will have one or two makeweights like debutants Gibraltar, does it matter who England get?

Roy Hodgson, who, barring a catastrophe in Brazil this summer, will be England's manager charged with negotiating the qualification, is at pains to dismiss this notion.

"I think we judge teams on their names, their history, but you have to get out and beat them," he said. "Montenegro are a good example. No one was saying 'blimey, Montenegro' [in England's World Cup qualifying group]. People were tending to suggest [beating them would be] a piece of cake, but it certainly wasn't a piece of cake. Neither over there or at Wembley. They weren't bad and had some good players."

England clung on for a 1-1 draw in Podgorica, and took a while to break down a depleted team at Wembley. Montenegro are in Pot Four, with a reviving Scotland and a Wales team which can call on Gareth Bale, Aaron Ramsey and many other top-flight players. "I think you find in these Pots Three, Four and Five, there will be some good teams," added Hodgson. "What about the home nations? If we get drawn against Northern Ireland that is not a gimme."

The last time England played in Belfast, a World Cup qualifier under Sven Goran Eriksson in 2005, David Healy's goal sent them to defeat. Northern Ireland are in Pot Five, as are Iceland who were a play-off away from reaching Brazil this summer. The Republic of Ireland, despite declining results, held on to a place in Pot Two but the team Hodgson will want to avoid in that pot is Belgium, Europe's growing force.

Realistically, England should qualify whatever the draw. Under this format they would have reached every previous finals, including the last failure to to do so in 2008. Even though there has been a levelling of standards in Europe in the last two decades, it would be a crushing blow if England missed out.

Hodgson says he will not take much notice of the draw after today until this summer's World Cup is out of the way. On Thursday he announces his squad for the friendly against Denmark on 5 March at Wembley, the last game before he names his World Cup squad in May. There will be some thinking beyond Brazil when it comes to choosing that. Does he pick players with only the World Cup in mind or with a view to the future?

"One line of thought [is] that you should go for the senior players, be loyal to the ones that have helped you get where you are, that they deserve to go to the World Cup even though it might be near the end of their career," he said.

"The other theory is you should really concentrate on the younger players, the ones that are going to be useful to you in the next qualifying campaign, maybe in World Cups to come, who could benefit from the experience. The problem is I subscribe to both theories."

The other issue which has caused Hodgson to think in the long term is his captain's new role for Liverpool. There have been suggestions, so far unsubstantiated, that Steven Gerrard will retire from international football after the World Cup, but a deeper role for club and country may enable him to play on for both, though Hodgson is not convinced Gerrard is working any less hard.

"He will be 34 in May, so he will be getting on for 36 [by Euro 2016]," said Hodgson. "I think a lot will depend on how he feels, how he is playing. At the moment there has been no slowing down in his play.

"He has played [in a deeper role] for us in one or two games and it went well, so I am not surprised to see him change his role slightly [with Liverpool]. A player like Steven, who is such an all-round player, will give you good attacking work and good defending work.

"Whether that spares him running or not, I don't know. Sometimes you think he is not doing as much there, but you might be surprised."

It may be that with a couple of group opponents likely to do little more than make up the numbers Hodgson would only require Gerrard for five or six qualifiers, plus the occasional friendly. Coupled with a respectable showing in Brazil, by team and player, such a moderate international workload may persuade Gerrard it is worth hanging on for one last shot at glory.

'If you don't like it, don't play'

Michel Platini, the Uefa president, has defended the decision to increase the number of teams at Euro 2016 to 24, insisting it will not reduce the tournament's quality. He revealed that England and Germany opposed the proposal, which was put forward by the Irish and Scottish Football Associations, and said: "If they don't like it, they shouldn't play in that case! It was a decision that was taken by the vast majority. Two or three such as England and Germany were not in favour but 50 supported the proposal. Even if England and Germany are not happy with it, that's democracy." He said there would still be pressure on most countries to qualify: "The five or six biggest teams should have little problem but from the 15th to the 40th teams they will be fighting very, very hard."

Euro 2016 qualifying draw

Draw takes place at le Palais des Congrès Acropolis, Nice, 11am today

Who will be there?

Fifteen former winners will assist Uefa general secretary Gianni Infantino.

Most will be goalkeepers, notably Dino Zoff, Peter Schmeichel and Fabien Barthez, so any dropped balls would be doubly embarrassing.

How does it work?

A record 53 countries, seeded in six pots, will be drawn into eight groups of six and one of five.

The top seeds, including England, are drawn first.

The rest of the pots will then be drawn from six to two.

England, Germany, Italy, Spain and Holland must be in six-team groups for TV broadcasters. For political reasons Azerbaijan cannot be drawn in the same group as Armenia, nor Spain with debutants Gibraltar.

France, who are guaranteed a place as hosts, will then be added to the five-team Group I, but their matches will not score points.

Who goes through?

Group winners and runners-up, and the best third-placed side. The eight other third-placed teams will contest play-offs to produce the last four qualifiers for the enlarged 24-nation finals – a 16-team format had been used since 1996.

So what else is new?

A 'Week of Football' concept means matches will be played every day from Thursday to Tuesday.

Where do we go from here?

The next European Championship in 2020 will not have a host nation but will be contested in 13 countries to celebrate the Euros' 60th birthday.

England's best-case scenario

Hungary

Austria

Finland

Moldova

Gibraltar

Moderate standard of opponents, no tricky journeys and a romantic tie with debutants Gibraltar

England's Group of Death

Belgium

Turkey

Wales

Northern Ireland

Kazakhstan

Tough or highly motivated opponents – substitute Scotland for Wales if you will – and a long-haul trip to Asia

Pot luck: Guide to the contenders

Pot one

Spain, Germany, Holland, Italy, England, Portugal, Greece, Russia, Bosnia & Herzegovina

Spain are winners of the last two tournaments – and are favourites to make it three in a row – while Italy were runners-up last time and Holland lost to Spain in the final of the World Cup in 2010. Bosnia & Herzegovina only became a Fifa member in 1996 and are among the top seeds for the first time; they came close to qualifying for Euro 2012, losing in the play-off stage, but won their group in reaching the World Cup, their first tournament.

Pot two

Ukraine, Croatia, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Hungary, Republic of Ireland

Belgium, with their burgeoning collection of Premier League stars, are the in-form country in this pot. Croatia have reached four out of five Euros since gaining independence in 1991. Hungary have not reached the latter stages since 1972, when they lost in the semi-finals.

Pot three

Serbia, Turkey, Slovenia, Israel, Norway, Slovakia, Romania, Austria, Poland

With Fatih Terim returning as national coach for a third time, Turkey will hope to improve on play-off defeats in their most recent Euro and World Cup qualifying campaigns and they pose the biggest threat in this group, not least because of the hostile atmosphere that visiting teams can expect. Serbia are also a force to be reckoned with.

Pot four

Montenegro, Armenia, Scotland, Finland, Latvia, Wales, Bulgaria, Estonia, Belarus

A resurgent Scotland have their best chance for many years of qualifying for a major tournament following the expansion to 24 teams. Even Wales may harbour hopes of a return to the international limelight – their last World Cup was in 1958. As England know only too well, the tiny nation of Montenegro are a dark horse with great talent. They missed out four years ago after losing in the play-offs, a fate shared by Estonia, whose ambitions may be enhanced by new coach, Sweden's Magnus Pehrsson.

Pot five

Iceland, Northern Ireland, Albania, Lithuania, Moldova, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Cyprus

Iceland are the form side in this pot and harbour strong hopes of progressing to their first major tournament after reaching the play-offs for the World Cup in Brazil – when they lost to Croatia.

Pot six

Luxembourg, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Faroe Islands, Malta, Andorra, San Marino, Gibraltar

None of the above will make the other sides sweat – although Spain and their neighbours Gibraltar, who are included in qualifying for the first time, cannot be drawn against each other because of the Spanish dispute over the British territory. The lack of a suitable stadium means Gibraltar will play their home matches in the Algarve in southern Portugal. Allen Bula's team played their first international in November and managed a highly creditable 0-0 draw with Slovakia.