World Cup: 365 and counting...

With the World Cup Finals just a year away, Brazil have thrilling potential but england, for once, look like serious challengers

A year from now, the 2006 World Cup starts in Munich. The images come flooding into mind: Gascoigne, Pele, Beckenbauer, Jairzinho, Maradona, Ronaldo, Hurst, Socrates - funny how so many are in canary yellow. Brazil, defending champions, holders also of the Copa America and the world Under-20 and Under-17 championships, are fancied again. Or at least they were until late Wednesday night.

That was when Argentina detonated the growing belief, from Rio to Recife, from Sao Paulo to Belo Horizonte, that Brazil were on the cusp of a team to equal that of 1970. Despair has now gripped Brazil, as it always does after losing to their old rivals. Their coach, Carlos Alberto Parreira, said his team had gone from being "in paradise" to being "in hell". His hell, though, is relative. Compared to the heat Brazil were facing at this stage of the last World Cup cycle this hell has air-conditioning, a fridge full of beer and a hammock on the veranda.

Four years ago Brazil were struggling just to qualify. They were fourth in the South American qualifying group, the last automatic qualifying spot. At which point "Big Phil", Felipe Scolari became the fourth coach in a year. He promptly lost his first match to a Uruguayan team which thus drew level on points with Brazil.

History records that Scolari would go on to lead Brazil not just to the 2002 finals, but to victory in Yokohama despite losing his captain, Emerson, with a broken arm. Scolari then took Portugal to the final of Euro 2004 while Brazil, without Ronaldo and Ronaldinho, swept to victory in the South American equivalent, the Copa America.

Even after losing 3-1 in Buenos Aires, Brazil are one victory away from joining Argentina, the hosts Germany, and Wednesday's Asian qualifiers Iran, Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia in the finals. That should come against Chile in September.

The questions Parreira must answer before then is should he recall Ronaldo - omitted this week after he asked not to play in the Confederations Cup - and should he discard his new attacking style?

Brazil's Copa America victory was based on defence, as was their 1994 World Cup triumph under Perreira. However, for the selecao winning is not enough, it has to be done in style. Perreira's assistant, after all, is Mario Zagallo, coach of the fabled 1970 team. Zagallo constantly talks of the need to value art ahead of strength.

In a nod to this tradition Parreira selected the fab four Ronaldinho, Adriano, Kaka and the new starlet, Robinho, for Saturday's home qualifier against Paraguay. Result: Brazil played gloriously and won 4-1. Parreira retained the quartet against Argentina. Result: Brazil were overwhelmed in midfield where Juan Roman Riquelme had the freedom of the River Plate Stadium and were 3-0 down by half-time.

It is an outcome hinted at by Tord Grip, the England assistant coach, when he told me last month: "Brazil have problems with their midfielders.Parreira likes to base his team on defence, as he did in '94, and he is looking for defensive midfielders. They have lots of attackers, Brazil always have lots of attackers, but not defensive midfielders."

So will Parreira, who only deployed Emerson in a midfield tackling role on Wednesday, recall Gilberto Silva? And how can a team fielding Roque Junior, last seen being dismissed at Leeds United, be serious contenders for the World Cup?

But if not Brazil, then who? Whom should England fear? "Germany," said the England coach Sven Goran Eriksson, "especially Germany, because it is in Germany, geography is important. Then you look at Italy, and maybe France if they qualify. And Brazil. They have only won once in Europe, but they have very good players."

No one writes off Brazil. Sir Bobby Robson's verdict was that Brazil and Argentina are "always dangers". He added: "But I don't see anything out of France, Germany or Italy to frighten us. We have a fine team. In [Wayne] Rooney we have an artist. I think the boy is sensational."

That view is echoed by Marco van Basten, an artist himself as a player, now smoothly steering the Netherlands to the finals. "He's world-class already," Van Basten said. "He's a lot better at his age than I was. He's quick, he's clever and he's got good technique. What more do you want in a player?"

Franz Beckenbauer, the only man to win the World Cup as a player and manager, and the head of Germany's organising committee, is another fan. "England's young players could make all the difference to their chances," he said. "I'm really impressed with England and the way they play. My only concern is they play a lot of games so when it comes to finals they have often run out of strength."

The extra fortnight's rest Eriksson has squeezed out of the Premier League should help, and so should the location. Germany can get hot in June but it will not swelter like Shizuoka, where England lost to Brazil in the 2002 quarter-finals. For all the promise of Brazil's forwards and Argentina's all-round promise - "We're growing into some team," noted their striker Hernan Crespo - continental advantage ought to prove decisive.

That has been the view of the Football Association for some time. It is several years ago that Howard Wilkinson, then the FA's technical director, went through football history with me over coffee in a Derbyshire hotel. He argued that, with the exception of 1958, when Brazil won in Sweden, and 1994, when Brazil won in the US, every World Cup had been won by a team from a similar geographic and climatic zone.

Similarly the European Championship with the exception of the first tournament, in 1960, when the USSR won in Paris - but back then only the semi-finals and final were played in the host country. Since then Brazil have won in Japan but, as with the US, that was in the absence of a strong local contender. Consider that Czechoslovakia won the European Championship when it was held in Yugoslavia, Denmark when it was held in Sweden. And while Greece may be a long way from Portugal, both countries share a southern European climate and culture. Thus the FA has long targeted 2006 as a great chance for England.

Of course, Germany being at the crossroads of Europe, the same might apply to the Italians, Dutch, French, Czechs and, obviously, the hosts. Of those, all except France seem likely to qualify and threaten. The French are not the only unexpected strugglers. Euro 2004 champions Greece are adrift of Oleg Blokhin's Ukraine. Spain, having drawn at home to Bosnia in midweek, face a stiff challenge from Serbia & Montenegro. In Africa Cameroon and Nigeria could be edged out by the Ivory Coast and Angola while Senegal, one of the surprises of 2002, trail Togo.

Germany awaits. The hosts are still smarting from the Robert Hoyser refereeing scandal, but the stadiums are on course and excitement is growing, aided by Germany's revival under Jürgen Klinsmann.

Fans from more than 178 countries have placed more than four million ticket orders. "It's been great playing there," said Kasey Keller, the former Tottenham goalkeeper now with Borussia Mönchengladbach. "There's a real sense of anticipation."

Just 365 days to go.

The road to Germany: How they stand across the world

Europe

* 14 QUALIFY

Germany have qualified as hosts. Eight group winners and two best runners-up qualify automatically; the other six second-place finishers play off, with the winners qualifying.

* LIKELY QUALIFIERS

Netherlands, Czech Republic, Ukraine, Portugal, Italy, Poland, England are almost there, along with Spain or Serbia & Montenegro, Croatia or Sweden and one from Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, France and Israel. Also in play-off contention are Turkey or Greece, Slovakia or Russia, and Norway or Slovenia.

South America

* 4 QUALIFY (and fifth-placed team plays off v Oceania winner).

Argentina have qualified, after beating Brazil 3-1 on Wednesday, but the second-placed Brazilians will soon book their place too. In the exhausting 10-team qualifying group, Ecuador, Colombia, Paraguay and Chile lead the race for the remaining places.

Africa

* 5 QUALIFY

Qualifying has come down to five groups with the winners progressing. They are likely to be Togo or Senegal, South Africa, Ivory Coast, Nigeria or Angola, and Morocco or Tunisia.

Concacaf

* 3 QUALIFY (and fourth-placed team plays off v fifth-placed Asian team)

Mexico and United States will qualify from the six-team final group stage. Costa Rica should follow with Guatemala, Trinidad & Tobago or Panama entering the play-off.

Asia

* 4 QUALIFY (and fifth-placed team plays off v fourth-placed Concacaf team)

Iran, Japan, Saudi Arabia and South Korea have qualified. Bahrain, Kuwait or Uzbekistan will be in the play-off.

Oceania

* 1 QUALIFIES (to face fifth-placed South American team in play-off)

Australia should defeat Solomon Islands home and away in September and then meet a South American team over two legs.