Premier League betting preview: Vorm won't be turned by Villa

When Javier Hernandez put Manchester United ahead after barely ten minutes at the Liberty Stadium last Saturday, it was relayed by Jon Champion on ESPN as though it was somehow the end of a mean streak that would go down into Swansea folklore.

Proclaimed as the first Premier League goal scored by an opposition player on Welsh soil, it all added to the spectacle for those viewers who never cared a jot for the Jacks until their arrival at the top table of English football. However, punters who have followed the Swansea evolution under three different managers over the past four years will know there was nothing particularly unusual about such a run of zeros in the against column.

The Jacks have a style all of their own. Brought to fruition by the romantic Roberto Martinez and carried forward by the pragmatic Paulo Sousa, it has now been fine-tuned by the meticulous mind of Brendan Rodgers, whose name nobody is allowed to mention without referring to the fact that he is a protege of Jose Mourinho.

Swansea's primary concern has always been to keep the ball and with each passing regime, their ability to do so for sustained periods has been honed in a way that prevents the opposition from catching them cold whenever they get it back.

There is nothing new about Swansea keeping a clean sheet but we see it happening more often as their way of playing becomes more ingrained in the personnel, with only scant regard for the higher standard of opposition now being put in front of them.

So let's take a slice of the 9/4 being offered by Ladbrokes about the Swans shutting out Aston Villa in the early kick-off on Sunday. With 33 clean sheets in their last 52 home league matches, the numbers certainly stack up.

We should insert the disclaimer that Villa boast a greater attacking threat than most with the likes of Gabby Agbonlahor and Darren Bent to call upon should they be able to get balls over the top and into the box.

However, we're putting our faith in the home side dominating possession of the ball to such an extent that they prevent the visitors from exercising either of those threats too often.

Meanwhile, the Champions League delivered yet another traumatic experience for Manchester City in Naples on Tuesday but we should put that to the back of our minds when they visit Liverpool on Sunday.

The Blues have suffered serious bouts of anxiety in all but one of their five European matches so far but it's had very little impact on their domestic form. In four previous matches coming off the back of games against foreign opposition, all of which have been away from home, they have scored 15 goals.

City's band of overseas imports have clearly surpassed the point where the English game holds any fears and we're now witnessing a thoroughbred on the gallop.

The club has assembled an extraordinary group of players in a relatively short space of time, so it's easy to be caught napping in possession of old habits and associations. To anyone of a certain age, the idea of City being favourites for a game at Anfield just doesn't sit right and we suspect this might be a mistake that's holding back most of the layers who offer 6/4 or better about the away win.

We should never underestimate the special aura Liverpool fans can generate for big matches and how this can transmit itself to the team. Anfield is one of the few remaining venues that possesses such a special quality and is perhaps unrivalled in its ability to empower players for isolated matches but we make allowances for that in suggesting City should be no bigger than 11/8.

In order to strip away the old beliefs and put the odds into some kind of context, consider the respective goal difference figures of the two teams: City are operating at +31 after 12 matches, Liverpool are stuck on +5.

The Reds were worthy 3-0 winners in this fixture last April but that proved to be a watershed for the Roberto Mancini regime, the last stand of the 'old City' if you like. The players were given a right going over by the management team in the wake of that performance and their next outing would be a 1-0 win over Manchester United in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley, from which point they have never looked back.

In 22 competitive English matches since that rain-sodden evening on Merseyside, City's record reads W20 D1 L1 F61 A16. If you turned up in a foreign land to watch a game between two alien teams and were presented with those figures by the local bookie, you'd only be backing one team.

Recommended bet:

1pt Swansea to keep a clean sheet against Aston Villa at 9/4 (Ladbrokes)

2pts Man City to beat Liverpool at 13/8 (Betfred, Victor Chandler)

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