January transfer window: Why the hassle and risk is no longer worth it for most Premier League clubs

The changing face of the transfer market means there is little benefit in spending risky money

Was this the winter when austerity reaches the Premier League? Or when reality finally kicked in for clubs who have spent without inhibition for years?

This transfer window has gone against what we have grown to expect from modern January transfer windows. In recent years this has been a time when clubs have spent like they were shopping in the January sales. They have gone for quantity but there has traditionally been quality too.

Virgil van Dijk’s move to Liverpool one year ago could be one of the most important transfers in English football in recent years. Alexis Sanchez was awarded English football’s biggest ever contract. Luis Suarez, Edin Dzeko, Fernando Torres and Juan Mata, some of the best players of the last decade, all moved in January windows.

But the highest profile signing of this January, Christian Pulisic, will not even play in the Premier League until next season. Gonzalo Higuain is famous but his impact on Chelsea is less clear. And beyond that there is almost nothing to get excited about, beyond flurries of activity at Bournemouth and Newcastle United.

There was even an expectation within the game that this January’s activity would be intensified by the change to the transfer window.

This was the first summer, remember, when the Premier League window closed before the start of the new season. Leaving plenty of teams with their business half-finished by the time the summer window shut. Observers thought those teams would come back in January, keen to do all the business they were not able to complete in the summer, but it has not turned out like that.

In fact, this was a window when almost half of the Premier League decided before the start of the month that they would not even be trying to bring any players in, according to senior industry sources.

An optimistic interpretation would say that is because clubs are so happy with their squads that they are literally incapable of improving them during the transfer window. But that would go against everything we see on the pitch every week in the Premier League.

More plausible as an explanation is that Premier League teams now realise that the hassle and expense of trying to deal in this transfer window is now barely worth it.

The transfer market is still continuing to adjust to FIFA’s decision to stop regulating agents back in 2015, a decision that has only made the market murkier than ever before. FIFA are now considering re-instituting regulation to try to put a stop to practices that are regularly described as being like a ‘Wild West’.

Christian Pulisic, the biggest signing of the window, won’t even arrive until the summer (Getty / Independent)

One major UK agency had five different agents all offer them the same player from Latin America this month, each claiming to have control over him. Clubs are increasingly unsure who to trust and who can deliver them the right players. One player in his mid-30s who has not even played for more than a year has spent this month looking for a £30,000 per week contract.

In a market that is increasingly difficult for clubs to manage, many are simply deciding to wait until the summer. In part that reflects a new sensibility among clubs, a reluctance to throw money at players hoping that they might just work out. There is more of an ethos of clubs doing their due diligence on players now, not wanting to throw big money on risky purchases. More clubs are turning down players, and sale prices they are quoted than they have done for years.

Premier League clubs realised that the splurge of the last few years could not last forever. Ever since the game-changing £5.1billion TV deal was agreed in February 2015, English clubs have been throwing their weight around Europe, buying any available players from abroad simply because they can. But there is a growing realisation that many clubs have just been throwing money away, and that it no longer makes sense to do so. Especially with fear that TV deals may start to come down from their peak, and the added caution over Brexit.

But the final reason, and perhaps the most lasting, is the financial stratification of the Premier League, its central modern story that almost explains everything else. Teams are effectively grouped by budget and it is very difficult for teams to over or under-perform that. Of course, Premier League survival is absolutely crucial, which is why Newcastle United spent £20m on Miguel Almiron and Fulham tried to be busy. But for teams whose survival is more likely, there is little benefit to spending risky money now. They have realised that they are better off waiting until the summer.