Six Nations predictions: Wales to triumph in Cardiff but England still heavy favourites to win the title

The Independent has teamed up with QBE Business Insurance to predict every round of the Six Nations

England are slight favourites with the bookmakers’ to make it three wins from three in the Six Nations when they face Wales this weekend, but despite remaining heavy favourites for the championship, our predictor believes the home side will cause a monumental upset on Saturday.

The Independent has teamed up with QBE Business Insurance to provide predictions for each round of matches every Friday during the Six Nations, which continues this weekend with the third week of fixtures that begins in Paris as France and Scotland meet at the Stade de France, before the big one in Cardiff as rivals Wales and England collide, with Ireland heading to Rome to face winless Italy on Sunday afternoon.

QBE Business Insurance has based its predictions on a complex mathematical formula created by a team of experts whose day job is to help businesses anticipate the likelihood and impact of risks so that they can prepare for and manage them properly.

The computer model has simulated each game 10,000 times with an average score taken to find the final result. Actuaries inputted a wide range of rugby variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by the teams involved, as well as the experience of each team's captain and who has the benefit of home territory.

Beginning in Paris, France are still looking to pick up their first win of the championship, and despite a much-changed selection from head coach Jacques Brunel our prediction makes grim reading for Les Bleus. Scotland would perhaps be favourites for this clash, but after their injury problems were added to by the loss of Finn Russell, Stuart Hogg and Huw Jones, we predict the first draw of the tournament in a 22-22 result.

Next, to Cardiff for the big game of the weekend that has been billed the Grand Slam eliminator. England come into the match with a slender two-point lead at the top of the table, but our predictor says that it’ll be Wales on top come Saturday night courtesy of a 20-19 victory. However, with the win expected to be by the slimmest of margins, it once again shows just how difficult it is to predict the outcome of the Six Nations, just like in life and business.

Despite this, England are still overwhelming favourites for the title thanks to the bonus points that they picked up against Ireland and France over the first two weeks of the championship and the fact that Wales still have to play Ireland on the final weekend.

Another bonus-point win is expected in Rome on Sunday, and unsurprisingly it won’t be for Italy as we predict they’ll slide to a heavy 49-11 defeat that keeps Ireland’s title retention alive, albeit in the hope that they see England slip up.