Wales vs South Africa, Rugby World Cup 2019: Fine margins set to decide semi-final showdown in Yokohama

From the first whistle to the last, Sunday’s showdown is going to be a bruising bombardment on the minds and bodies of Warren Gatland’s men

After a quarter-final that was decided by the swing of an elbow, Wales will know they cannot rely on such turns of fortune in Sunday’s showdown with South Africa.

There will be no swirling unpredictability from the Springboks, as there was with the French. From the first whistle to the last, it’s going to be a bruising bombardment on the minds and bodies of Warren Gatland’s men. If the Welsh give an inch, they will be duly punished. There can be no lulls in concentration or intensity. Not against South Africa.

Regardless of whether or not Wales deserve their semi-final berth, having been taken to the very edge by Jacques Brunel’s side last weekend, they’ve shown in Japan what they’re capable of.

The win over Australia was by no means a picture of perfection but reaffirmed the granite-like resolve and resilience of the Welsh – qualities needed to cope with the searing heat and pressure of a Rugby World Cup semi-final.

That victory, in holding out against the Wallabies’ second-half fightback, was underpinned by the industrial work rate of the forwards at the breakdown and a heroic defensive display. It was gutsy, lung-bursting, utterly absorbing.

But Wales cannot afford to get sucked into a similar arm wrestle against the South Africans, whose fearsome physicality was put to devastating use against the Japanese in a war of attrition that eventually left the hosts battered and broken.

And Gatland will know that Sunday’s opponents make for a very different entity to the Wallabies. There will be none of the inconsistency or errors that saw Australia gift multiple points to the Welsh in their encounter last month.

South Africa are a far more settled, streamlined side. In Handre Pollard they have a unwavering source of composure and poise – a stark contrast to the fly-half troubles of the Aussies. Pollard’s boot played a crucial role in grinding down Japan last weekend, taking him to 126 career RWC points and into the all-time top 10 in the competition. Wales’ discipline must be on point to avoid handing the Springbok a similar platform with which to assert himself.

Then there’s Faf de Klerk, one of the best 9s on the planet whose ability to disrupt attacks at their source has unsettled many teams at this World Cup. It helps that Wales have their own superstar at scrum-half. But Gareth Davies cannot expect the same free ride he was afforded by the Wallabies. For all his intelligent reading of the game, the likelihood of him plucking an interception off Pollard or De Klerk seems slim at best.

Then there’s the attacking threat of the Springboks out on the wings – an area of the game where the Welsh were found wanting against Fiji and France. Indeed, Wales will have their hands full in keeping Makazole Mapimpi under wraps, the latter of whom has scored 13 tries in 12 test appearances. However, some consolation can be taken from the fact Cheslin Kolbe won’t feature on Sunday after being ruled out with injury.

“It is brilliant to see guys like Cheslin and Makazole doing well,” said Bryan Habana this week. “Now all of a sudden (there are) these guys that are exciting, that are scintillating, that have dazzling feet, who are incredibly quick and nippy and can cause absolute havoc for defences.

“Going forward it is not about what size of rugby player you are, it is actually what goods you can produce on the field.”

Faf de Klerk has been one of the stars of this World Cup (Getty Images)

Still, for all South Africa’s qualities – make no doubt, they present the most difficult challenge yet for Wales – Gatland has plenty of talent to draw upon for Sunday’s clash, assuming the disjointed and underwhelming performance seen in Oita isn’t repeated.

Gareth Davies’ sniping and kicking will keep the Springboks on their toes, while the return of Jonathan Davies brings a sharp edge to Wales’ backline – on both the front and back foot. And if Justin Tipuric and Aaron Wainwright, who was named man of the match against France, can continue to impose themselves in and around the breakdown, as they’ve done for much of the tournament in Japan, then the South Africans may find themselves struggling to deliver the quick service needed to unleash their dangerous wingers.

South Africa have also identified the Welsh kicking game as a crucial battlefront for the encounter in Yokohama. “We are expecting a tough battle, especially with their kicking game,” backs coach Mzwandile Stick said this week. “They have got a lot of guys who have been around and they like to play for territory. They suffocate teams and do not allow them to come into their half.” He added: “We have to come up with a plan to get into their half.” Should the Springboks get their tactics wrong, they’ll have the speed and precision of George North, Josh Adams and Liam Williams to contend with.

After seeing their campaign brought to an end by South Africa four years ago in England, Wales now have the chance to make amends and, in the process, reach the final of the tournament for the first time in their history. The recent encounters between the two teams suggests Gatland’s men may have the edge – they have won the last four matches – but that will ultimately count for little in the unique, suffocating conditions of a World Cup semi-final.

Jonathan Davies is set to feature after sitting out the win over France through injury (Getty)

But the margins, as ever, are likely to be small. “The games against them tend to come down to one score and that is what is exciting this weekend: you are going into a game and you do not know who is going to win,” Edwards added this week.

“A World Cup semi-final is where you want to be and while our last three matches have not gone smoothly, they were character building. We have not lost a competitive game since February 2018. Are we a better team than 2011 when we reached the semi-final? We will find out on Sunday.”