Six Nations predictions: Winner, top try-scorer, breakthrough star and more

Will a returning Antoine Dupont lead France to victory? And is there any end to Wales’ woe? A thrilling campaign awaits...

The Six Nations returns with rugby’s annual spring spectacular set to provide the usual thrills and spills.

France begin as defending champions and will hope for more success, but are likely to face tough opposition from England, who arrive on an 11-match winning run, and Ireland, who meet Les Bleus on the opening night in Paris.

Scotland also have a squad capable of challenging as they bid to bounce back from a disappointing autumn; Italy will hope to overcome injuries to maintain their upward curve; and Wales will look to banish off-field noise and take steps forward in their first Six Nations under Steve Tandy.

It is a slightly condensed campaign this year, with the removal of a rest weekend likely to put increased pressure on each squad. Could that have a bearing on the outcome of the competition?

Find out who The Independent’s writers are tipping for success in our annual predictions:

Winner

Harry Latham-Coyle, rugby correspondent: Why not England? Well, Steve Borthwick’s side have to go to Paris on the final weekend. And Edinburgh, a place of unhappy recent memories, in round two. There’s Ireland at home to fret about, too. But after too many years out of contention, this is surely the time for a title tilt from a team that has all the tools, you’d say, to win it after an 11-match winning run to conclude 2025.

Luke Baker, sport live editor: As tempting as it is to follow Harry in with England, home advantage for France in their two toughest games to bookend the tournament leads me to go with Les Bleus. And what a home advantage it is – the Stade de France will be rocking, so if they can make it to round five with a grand slam still on the line, it’s hard to bet against them. History says that Six Nations teams going for a grand slam on home soil always get it. It also says that France win the Six Nations that follows a Lions tour. Bonne chance to the rest.

France are reigning Six Nations champions (AFP via Getty Images)

Wooden Spoon

HLC: There has been no greater fan of Italy’s overdue development into a genuine Six Nations threat than I, but one fears a difficult campaign for the Azzurri. In part, this is due to some rough injury luck — to lose teenage talent Edoardo Todaro with fellow will o’ the wisp Ange Capuozzo already out is particularly unfortunate — and I just feel that Wales might have one big performance in them in Cardiff.

LB: I don’t think Wales have one big performance in them in Cardiff... Actually, that’s unfair as there were the slightest flashes of promise in the autumn and Steve Tandy is building an environment that is allowing the scars of horrific past couple of years to ever so slowly heal. However, I think this Six Nations comes too soon. Italy is their only realistic chance of a win but the Azzurri have those recent victories to draw on, so will break Welsh hearts.

Will Wales avoid another harrowing wooden spoon? (PA)

Player of the tournament

HLC: The history of the official award has not been kind to Englishmen. Mike Brown in 2014 remains the only winner (Stuart Hogg was voted player of the tournament despite an English grand slam two years later), leaving it perhaps foolish to select one here. But if they do win a first Six Nations since 2020, then one would imagine it will be hard to ignore their case - Ben Earl might just marry the standout statistics and statement showings required to contend.

LB: I refuse to overthink this one. Even though it’s 11 months since his last appearance in the blue jersey and he’s only played for France seven times since the 2023 World Cup, Antoine Dupont is still the best player in the world. He is unlikely to miss a beat as he makes his return and you suspect he’ll want to right some wrongs in the opener against Ireland, almost a year on from rupturing his cruciate ligaments while facing Andy Farrell’s side. That will set him up to add a third player of the tournament gong to his 2022 and 2023 crowns.

Could Ben Earl contend for player of the tournament? (PA Wire)

Breakthrough Star

HLC: Andy Farrell’s regeneration of his team might have been accelerated somewhat by injury, but this feels a pivotal campaign for the Ireland head coach to find a few individuals that can take them forward. Having spotlighted Edwin Edogbo as one of our six new(ish) faces to watch, it was a shame not to see the Munster lock in the matchday 23 for the opener against France but it feels likely he features at some stage. There’s a lot to like about the 23-year-old’s size and skill.

LB: If you’re going to be selected ahead of France’s all-time record try-scorer Damian Penaud, then you better be special. Luckily Theo Attissogbe is. Having shone almost immediately when forcing his way into the Pau team as a teenager, the tackle-breaking winger – who is also a much superior defensive option than Penaud – made something of a mark in last year’s Six Nations when scoring two tries against Wales and another against Italy. Fabien Galthie is said to be a huge fan and the 21-year-old could easily cement himself a genuinely world-class star in probably the best back three in world rugby this year.

Top try scorer

HLC: Louis Bielle-Biarrey is the obvious answer, and the right one. Since the 2025 Six Nations, the Bordeaux Begles and France wing has 27 tries in 27 matches for club and country, which is rather reasonable.

LB: Deep down, I suspect it will be Bielle-Biarrey but in the interest of variety, I’ll plump for Immanuel Feyi-Waboso. Injuries have caused a slightly stop-start feel to his England career so far but the Exeter winger is absolutely electric and feels perennially on the verge of taking the next step and becoming a world-class Test player. Jason Robinson said this week that he sees a lot of himself in Feyi-Waboso, which is some recommendation.

Louis Bielle-Biarrey helped France streak to a Six Nations title last year (Getty Images)

Most looking forward to…

HLC: Two night games in Paris promise plenty given the sense of occasion the hosts tend to generate at the Stade de France, but the removal of the first fallow week fascinates me. Tweaks to the structure of the Six Nations do not come that regularly and while minor on paper, a shift in the schedule will make squad management all the more important, and lend greater momentum to the campaign.

LB: Somehow, this is already the penultimate Six Nations before the 2027 World Cup and it feels like a key one for a number of coaches. In fact, I predict that by the summer, one country will have made a coaching change. Steve Borthwick is flying as England boss, while Steve Tandy and Gonzalo Quesada would rightly feel hard done by to be given a P45, even following a wooden spoon, given the stage of development Wales and Italy are at. Which leaves three... Gregor Townsend’s awkward dual role with Newcastle Red Bulls and Scotland’s continued failure to turn a ‘golden generation’ into legitimate title contenders could easily come back to haunt him, while Fabien Galthie has never truly connected with the French public and a comprehensive defeat to the Springboks in the autumn, followed by, say, a two-loss Six Nations where they enter as favourites could raise questions. Then we come to Andy Farrell. Ireland feel in flux, although Farrell has a huge amount of credit in the bank. But imagine defeats to France, England and Scotland – not an implausible scenario – to leave the men in green finishing outside the top three for the first time since 2013. And there’s a king over the water at La Rochelle... Stranger things have happened.