Will Novak Djokovic become regarded as the best of all time?

For years men's tennis has been dominated by a brilliant group but now one has risen far beyond his peers. As another season begins, Paul Newman considers whether it is Djokovic, not Federer, who will eventually be regarded as the best of all time

Men's world No 1 Novak Djokovic (Getty Images)

Nick Bollettieri has been in tennis for more than 60 years, worked with 10 world No 1s and founded the sport’s most famous academy, but the legendary coach has seen nothing like this. “People talk about the Big Four, but this guy is in a league of his own,” Bollettieri said last week as he looked ahead to the start of another Grand Slam season in Melbourne tomorrow at the Australian Open.

Although Novak Djokovic has some way to go to beat Roger Federer’s record tally of Grand Slam titles – the 28-year-old Serb has 10 compared with 34-year-old Federer’s 17 – Bollettieri believes the feat is well within his reach. Considering that Federer is widely regarded as the greatest player of all time, might Djokovic ultimately be handed that accolade?

In the last 12 months, Djokovic has reached 16 consecutive finals, winning 12 of them. Last year he won the Australian Open, Wimbledon and US Open, suffering his only defeat in Grand Slam competition to Stan Wawrinka in the final of the French Open.

The early signs are that he could be better than ever this year. The only tournament where Djokovic failed to reach the final last year was in the first week of January at the Qatar Open. He started his 2016 campaign in Doha again – and this time won the title, crushing Rafael Nadal 6-1 6-2 in the final. “I played against a player who did everything perfectly,” Nadal said afterwards. “I have never known anybody play tennis like that.”From being a fine athlete with formidable defence, Djokovic has become a superb all-rounder. “He serves well, returns brilliantly, hits great ground strokes, has unbelievable defence and has also become a very good attacking player,” Bollettieri said. “He’s also incredibly strong mentally. Nothing seems to throw him.”

Mats Wilander, three times a champion here in Australia and now a member of Eurosport’s commentary team, believes that Djokovic will win the calendar-year Grand Slam of all four titles this year – and go on to beat Federer’s record total of Grand Slam titles.

“If he wins here, which he should do, then I think he’ll dominate this season,” Wilander said yesterday. “If he doesn’t win here it’s harder to predict what that would do for his motivation. I think the Roland Garros final last year changed everything. I really don’t think he’ll go into a match like that this year without being fully prepared emotionally, mentally and tactically.”

Competing in a golden age for men’s tennis makes Djokovic’s achievements even more remarkable. The Big Four of Djokovic, Federer, Nadal and Andy Murray have won 39 of the last 43 Grand Slam titles and 42 of the last 45 Masters Series tournaments. Only Wawrinka has seriously threatened their domination in recent times.

Even in an era where strength and endurance have become crucial and more players are competing well into their thirties, might age ultimately prove to be the greatest hurdle Djokovic has to overcome if he is to overhaul Federer?

While the world No 1 is a model of fitness and flexibility, Federer, another superb athlete, had won 16 of his 17 Grand Slam titles by the time he was Djokovic’s age.

Wilander does not see this as an issue. “It doesn’t feel like he’s 28,” the Swede said. “He seems to be rejuvenating himself. His serve is much better, his forehand is much better. He just keeps getting better and better, finding new ways of doing it. I’ve never seen anything like it.”

Winning the French Open remains the biggest challenge. Grinding out victory on Parisian clay will not become any easier. However many Grand Slam titles Djokovic wins, his claim to ultimate greatness would be seriously undermined if he does not join the elite group of seven players – Federer, Nadal, Andre Agassi, Rod Laver, Don Budge, Fred Perry and Roy Emerson – who have won all four Grand Slam titles at some stage of their careers.

“To be considered the greatest ever, I think more than anything he’s going to have to win the French,” Brad Gilbert, Murray’s former coach, said last week. “If he does that and gets another five to seven majors, he’s going to be right there.”

Is greatness decided only by technical ability and statistics? Or do less quantifiable factors such as public appeal count? While few would dispute Djokovic’s brilliance, the Serb has never come close to matching the worldwide popularity of Federer and Nadal – the Swiss for his class both on and off the court, the Spaniard for his sheer charisma and never-say-die attitude.

Tennis fans do not feel the same warmth for Djokovic, who despite his sense of humour and remarkable command of languages can come across as a colder and less appealing character. His tennis can also appear more robotic and less spontaneous than that of his major rivals.

Gilbert, now part of the ESPN commentary team, sees a similarity between Djokovic and Ivan Lendl, another player from a small country (Czechoslovakia). Lendl was world No 1 for a total of 270 weeks (a total bettered only by Federer and Pete Sampras) between 1983 and 1990 but rarely enters any “greatest of all time” conversation.

“Lendl dominated but there were other people more beloved,” Gilbert said, pointing out that the popularity of Federer and Nadal is similar to that once enjoyed by Bjorn Borg and Agassi.

“The most important thing for Novak is to continue doing what he can control, playing great tennis. You can’t control who the people want to root for, who they like. The thing is, when you win 99 per cent of the time, people are going to tend to root to see an upset.”

Bollettieri believes that Djokovic will go on to beat Federer’s Grand Slam record, provided he has no physical issues. But the greatest ever? “I’m reluctant to name one player above anyone else because I think it’s very hard to compare players from different different eras,” Bollettieri said. “But if Djokovic does go on to beat Federer’s record it would be very hard to argue against him.”

So as Djokovic and the rest of the world’s top five go into 2016, how are they placed to add to their Grand Slam totals? Here is a quick form guide.

The top five

Novak Djokovic (world No 1)

Grand Slam titles 10
Last Grand Slam title US Open, 2015

Djokovic has lost only one match since August, to Federer in the round-robin stage of the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, and promptly avenged that defeat in the final. Indeed, since the first week of last year he has lost only five matches, three to Federer and one each to Wawrinka and Murray. The Serb loves the comparatively slow hard courts at Melbourne Park, where he has won the title five times. He appears to have a comparatively easy draw, with Kei Nishikori and Federer his scheduled quarter-final and semi-final opponents.

Andy Murray (world No 2)

Grand Slam titles 2
Last Grand Slam title Wimbledon 2013

Murray enjoyed his most consistent season in 2015 and ended the year at his highest position in the world rankings at No 2, but in Grand Slam competition the only final he reached was in Australia. His coach, Amélie Mauresmo, missed the last four months of last season because of the birth of her first child but is back with him here. The Scot usually plays some of his best tennis in Melbourne but is the only player who has lost four Australian Open finals – three to Djokovic and one to Federer – and never won the title.

Roger Federer (world No 3)

Grand Slam titles 17
Last Grand Slam title Wimbledon 2012

Federer continues to challenge for most major honours, but has claimed only one Grand Slam title since winning the last of his four Australian Opens in 2010. Until last year he had reached the semi-finals or better here 11 years in a row.

He has the best recent record against Djokovic and does not believe the Big Five (including Wawrinka) have been replaced by a league of one. “I still think the same guys are playing very well, but of course Novak deserves like a little star next to his name right now because he’s been doing extremely well,” Federer said yesterday.

Stan Wawrinka (world No 4)

Grand Slam titles 2
Last Grand Slam title French Open 2015

Wawrinka has blossomed late in his career, having won his first Grand Slam title at the 2014 Australian Open, aged 29. He lived for years in the shadow of Federer, his fellow Swiss, but has sometimes outshone him in recent times. The French Open champion’s heavyweight game can unsettle Djokovic, as he showed when beating the Serb here two years ago and in Paris last summer. Clay used to be regarded as Wawrinka’s most favoured surface but he has won four of his last five titles on hard courts.

Rafael Nadal (world No 5)

Grand Slam titles 14
Last Grand Slam title French Open 2014

It remains to be seen whether Nadal can again become a serious challenger for Grand Slam honours, but his game has improved markedly since last summer, when he dropped to No 10 in the world rankings after 12 months characterised by injury, illness and loss of form.

He usually plays well in Melbourne, having won the title in 2009, twice finished runner-up and reached the quarter-finals or better every time he has played here since 2004. However, since the 2014 French Open Nadal has won only one of his eight matches against fellow members of the Big Four.