Football / World Cup USA '94: Dutch master flirting with grief and glory: Phil Shaw explains how the Netherlands have come to terms with the strengths and weaknesses of Ronald Koeman, their creative captain

JUST before the World Cup finals began, a celebrated American psychic called Fran Baskerville was prevailed upon to pronounce on the outcome. The vibes were strong, the image clear: a player in orange was lifting the trophy. Good news, surely, for Ronald Koeman.

For those tempted to dismiss Ms Baskerville's prediction as a wild guess or rank nonsense, it should be added that when Diego Maradona's name came up she sensed 'great anger and frustration'. England fans might view the Argentinian's banishment as proof that cheats never prosper, at least in the long run, yet the man who became Graham Taylor's nemesis is still on course for the final.

Koeman leads the Netherlands into today's quarter-final against Brazil, a potential classic in the Cotton Bowl, knowing that three more victories will transform forecast into fact. But as with Maradona, one senses that the Barcelona libero is treading a tightrope between glory and grief. The kind of balancing act, in fact, he pulled off against England in Rotterdam last October.

The arguments for and against Koeman were encapsulated in a few minutes' action during that qualifying match. One moment he was trailing in David Platt's wake and hauling down the Sampdoria player as he seemed set to score. In virtually the next, courtesy of a German referee who neglected to administer the requisite punishment, he was curling an exquisite free-kick past David Seaman.

Koeman and company were US-bound, Taylor and his team on their way out. Selective indignation raged briefly among those in England who failed to recognise the Netherlands as the superior side (who also had a good goal disallowed). Meanwhile, the Dutch debate about Koeman has continued through into the knock-out stages of these finals.

The case for Koeman is basically twofold. With Ruud Gullit absent, Marco van Basten injured and Frank Rijkaard needing to concentrate on his own waning powers, the 31-year-old from Groningen represents the last major source of on-field tactical acumen available to the coach, Dick Advocaat.

Then there is Koeman's playmaking prowess - the laser-like accuracy of the long passes with which he turns defence into attack - and the threat he poses at any dead-ball situation within 40 yards of goal. His shots have been timed at 75mph, a speed calculated to break goalkeepers' fingers as well as hearts, though the one that did for Seaman was like a brush stroke by another kind of Dutch master.

The evidence against him, the defensive flaws highlighted by the Platt incident, was reinforced in the European Cup final. On a steamy night in Athens, where the newly crowned Spanish champions arrived as favourites, Koeman's ample girth and lack of pace were critically exposed by Milan's quick forwards and pinball passing.

Barcelona crashed 4-0 and the damage to Koeman looked to be both physical and psychological. When the Dutch met Scotland in Utrecht nine days later, Advocaat rested him not only from the match but even from light training. Gullit's walk-out 48 hours later hastened Koeman's return, and he duly scored his 14th international goal in a 7-1 warm-up win over Hungary.

When the competition began, though, he found that even the newly emerging football nations knew of his Achilles' heel. Advocaat seemed to acknowledge as much when, in the opening fixture against the fast-turning but unsung Saudi Arabians in Washington, he unexpectedly named Ulrich van Gobbel to play alongside Koeman.

As a creative defender in the Dutch tradition, Van Gobbel makes a good sprinter, but he earned his money covering for his captain in an uncomfortably close 2-1 win. Koeman was repeatedly caught trundling back after trying to spark his strikers, and while he looked more at ease in the 1-0 defeat by Belgium, Morocco often lured him out of the centre in the last group game.

Although another 2-1 scrape took the Dutch into the round of the last 16, something was clearly wrong. In their paranoia about Koeman having to turn and chase attackers, they were defending too deep and consequently conceding territory.

Koeman is renowned for disarmingly frank appraisals of his own performances, and with the senior player, Jan Wouters, he sought a meeting with Advocaat. The upshot was that against the Republic of Ireland, the Netherlands abandoned their utopian defensive system - Koeman in a free role plus only two markers - and regrouped in a formation closer to the one he plays at club level.

Stan Valckx, who partnered Koeman in his PSV Eindhoven days, assumed the main marking responsibility, with Aron Winter and Frank de Boer as full-backs. This meant forsaking Advocaat's preferred 3-4-3 for a more conservative 4-3-3, but it delivered a 2-0 success and the most cohesive Dutch display to date.

Other managers would probably have ditched one player rather an entire game plan. Advocaat's reluctance to do so demonstrates his faith in Koeman's influence when the framework is right.

Koeman himself is an urbane, personable character whose quiet charm belies the image projected by his SS officer's haircut and readiness to commit cynical fouls. After the pre-match press conference, he chatted patiently in baking heat to a media melee containing some of his strongest Dutch critics.

Today, when he will be winning his 77th cap (six short of Ruud Krol's record, though he intends to retire from the national side after the tournament), Brazil should provide the ultimate test of Koeman's credentials. Ironically, the man who could do most to damage his reputation is his Barcelona and former PSV colleague, Romario. He and Bebeto, a Spanish League adversary, are nothing if not mobile.

There again, Bobby Moore and Franz Beckenbauer were hardly greased lightning. If Koeman were able to impose his violent shooting and passing mastery on today's confrontation - and go on to receive the World Cup a week tomorrow - it would not require psychic power to evaluate his place in the football pantheon. With the Brazilians in wait, however, those are Texas-sized ifs.

(Photograph omitted)