How will war in the Middle East affect my flight?

Simon Calder answers your questions on the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, flights after the Air India tragedy, and baggage fees

Q I am watching the unfolding conflict in the Middle East with concern. As a side issue about travel: do you think a rise in the cost of oil will lead to surcharges? I seem to recall this happening before.

Paul G

A The price of oil has spiked in reaction to the upsurge in violence between Israel and Iran. The latter is one of the world’s largest producers of oil. Also, about 30 per cent of the world’s oil is carried on tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. The government in Tehran has previously threatened to blockade this narrow passage between Iran and Oman.

On Friday, the price of the benchmark Brent crude rose 7 per cent. If the increase is sustained, it will be reflected in the price of aviation fuel – one of the biggest elements of airlines’ costs. Long term, there will be an impact on fares. But the oil price rise alone is unlikely to have much of an impact over the coming months because most airlines “hedge” the majority of their forecast fuel requirements: they enter into financial deals to lock into a fixed price for a certain quantity of oil.

What may have more of an effect is the increase in route distances flown, particularly between Europe, the Gulf and Asia. Airlines are flying significantly longer routes in order to avoid the region. The distance covered on a typical flight between the UK and India has increased by about 10 per cent – with a commensurate rise in fuel burn during the cruise.

During previous oil price spikes, airlines have added fuel surcharges. Crucially, though, I have not heard of any passengers who have paid in full for their tickets (which, these days, is almost all of us) being asked for any more cash.

Package holiday pricing is different. Travel firms are allowed to apply a surcharge if they can demonstrate that their costs have risen by at least 2 per cent. If the company sets a surcharge of over 8 per cent, the customer has the right to cancel; for that reason, surcharges are often exactly 8 per cent. But while surcharging is legally permissible, many companies prefer to absorb the cost rise rather than annoy their customers.

The Boeing 787 is a superb aircraft that has previously flown 1 billion passengers without a fatal accident (Getty/iStock)

Q My friend’s brother is flying the exact same route with the same airline that crashed, and he is very nervous. What advice would you give him?

Name supplied

A After the tragedy on Thursday involving a Boeing 787 Dreamliner belonging to Air India, many people are feeling more anxious about flying. Passengers booked on the plane type involved and/or on the airline may be particularly concerned. The airline’s route from Ahmedabad to Gatwick is operating as before; it has been renumbered from AI171 to AI159 (which is aviation industry practice after crashes). This link will continue to connect tourists, business travellers and families between the Indian state of Gujarat and the UK.

Given the terrible scenes and heartbreaking stories that have been filling the news media, it is natural for prospective travellers booked on the flight to feel nervous. I would, though, be happy to step aboard the Air India Ahmedabad-Gatwick link, and I hope it will help if I explain why.

The Boeing 787 is a superb aircraft that has previously flown 1 billion passengers without a fatal accident. The aviation community is obsessed with safety; were there to be concerns about a hitherto unidentified design flaw, the plane would swiftly be grounded. Air India is a good airline with a strong safety culture. It is my first choice between the UK and India. All the flights I have taken on the carrier have been excellent.

Most importantly, as the expert investigators continue their work, one certainty is that their conclusions about the cause of the tragedy will help to make flying even safer. Crashes are studied intently to engineer out risk, improve procedures and make flying even safer for passengers and crew in the future.

Passengers can help themselves and others on board by paying some attention to safety. While you may have witnessed the pre-flight briefing a hundred times before, watch the cabin crew demonstration intently. Memorise the nearest exit so you are prepared in the extremely unlikely event of an evacuation. Studies show that “muscle memory” can make a difference in an emergency, increasing survivability.

Finally, remember the statistics are on your side, reflecting the professionalism that has brought the world an unprecedented level of aviation safety.

Extra fees for baggage can be annoying – having to pay twice even more so (Getty/iStock)

Q I booked a city break from Manchester to Copenhagen with an online travel agent for my son and myself. Being careful, I kept a screenshot of the booking. Now, a problem has arisen regarding the checked baggage. I believe that my booking clearly shows that I have added a 23kg bag for £17 each way. I have been charged a total of £34 for baggage. But when the confirmation came, it showed a checked bag going out but not coming back. The agent has said I should pay for the homeward leg and half the cost will be refunded. This has all been so stressful. What do you advise I do?

Denise B

A How frustrating. You have sent me the screenshot and it clearly shows that you added a bag in both directions. Knowing how awkward booking sites can be, I imagine deliberately paying for checked baggage in only one direction would be tricky. Evidently, though, “computer says no bag” on the way back.

Fortunately, you are travelling on SAS from Manchester to Copenhagen. From my experience with the airline, staff can sort out problems in a few keystrokes. I suggest that at check-in, you ask to speak to an SAS manager and explain your predicament. If there is no joy in Manchester, don’t fret too much; Copenhagen is a key base for SAS and there will be plenty of staff who should be able to help.

Even then, if the problem can’t be solved on your way in, I would still feel optimistic. If, on your return journey, you show the screenshot to the check-in agent, I think they will see that you certainly aimed to pay, and allow you to check your bag without paying again. Sorry if I am wrong and you end up handing over cash; all you can then do is send the agent the bill for half the cost and vow to book with someone else – such as a human travel agent – next time.

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