UK quarantine: Latest coronavirus figures are concerning for Portugal's exemption status

Exclusive: Portugal, added to the low-risk list only on Saturday, has had 399 new infections in the past 24 hours – higher than any day since 12 July

(Simon Calder)

After three more countries were added to the UK’s “no-go” list of foreign destinations, the latest data on infection rates is being studied intently.

The Czech Republic, Jamaica and Switzerland are now regarded as “unacceptably high risk” for British travellers, with the Foreign Office urging against visits and the Department for Transport insisting on two weeks of self-isolation for returning travellers – unless they can reach the UK by 4am on Saturday.

Many prospective holidaymakers have contacted The Independent to ask about the candidates most likely to be added to the list.

The UK government warns that any country sustaining a level above 20 new coronavirus cases per 100,000 citizens over the course of a week is likely to be stripped of quarantine exemption.

The tables produced by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control focus on a 14-day sample.

But analysis by The Independent of raw infection data and the three-day trends have revealed the likely candidates for losing – or gaining – exemption from quarantine requirements.

Portugal, which was added to the low-risk list only last Saturday morning, is seeing cases climb sharply – with 399 new infections identified in the past 24 hours, higher than any day since 12 July.

Italy has added 1,409 cases, the highest number since 5 May. While the country is seeing sustained increases, they are mostly modest and from a low base.

Turkey is following a similar pattern.

Greece has seen another 251 new cases, but the overall trend is flattening.

Cyprus, where British visitors are required to take a test before arrival, has reported no new cases in the past 24 hours, continuing a gentle decline in infections.

Sweden continues to be regarded as a no-go nation, even though it has a low and declining rate of new infections.

Julie Sandilands of Cumbria has written to her MP, Dr Neil Hudson, to ask why it remains “high risk”.

She told The Independent: “My eldest son and his children live in Lund, Sweden.

“The decision to not include Sweden on the exempt list has huge ramifications for me both financially and personally.”

Bulgaria, which is also on the no-go list, is only slightly ahead of Britain’s rates.

The Netherlands, too, is showing a sustained decline in new cases. It lost its quarantine exemption two weeks ago.

Germany remains stable and below the UK level, while Gibraltar has one of the highest new infection rates in the world, but remains on the UK’s low-risk list.

On Thursday, the chief minister of the British overseas territory, claimed Gibraltar is being judged unfairly over its coronavirus case numbers.

Fabian Picardo said: “We have larger numbers of the virus detected now, but we have no one in hospital, we have no one in ICU, we have no one having died from the virus.

“I’d say we’ve been very successful in our strategy.”

But Paul Charles, founder of travel consultants The PC Agency and a campaigner against quarantine, said: “It beggars believe that Gibraltar has not been included.

“It further supports the notion that this is an ill-thought-out strategy.”

The transport secretary, Grant Shapps, has warned prospective travellers “you have to go away with your eyes open” and be prepared for 14 days of unexpected self-isolation upon return.