Coronavirus: Top doctor says chances of contracting disease on plane is remote

‘I suspect that by the summer, this disease will be on the wane’ – professor Paul Hunter

As concern grows about the new strain of coronavirus and the risks to travellers, a leading infectious diseases specialist has talked to The Independent about keeping the risks in perspective.

Paul Hunter, professor of Health Protection at the University of East Anglia, said that he would confidently travel to Hong Kong, where several dozen cases of the Wuhan Coronavirus have been identified. And he predicted that the spread of the virus will abate by the summer.

Professor Hunter said: “Clearly there’s quite a bit we still don’t know about how it’s spreading, and ultimately how big an issue it’s going to be.

“At the moment the mortality rate is looking at about 2 per cent which is a little bit more than we would see for influenza. But I suspect that mortality rate will drop as we increasingly find less severe cases.

“At the moment we don’t know how big globally it will be, but it will be no worse than a really bad pandemic influenza year, I suspect.

“I suspect that by the summer, this disease will be on the wane.

“Whether or not it comes back again in the next winter is the big question and at the moment I wouldn’t bet either way.”

“But by then we will hopefully have vaccines.”

Professor Hunter also sought to put airline travellers’ minds at rest about air travel, and the risk of contagion in flight.

He said: “In a plane with say 300 passengers onboard the chances of an individual being positive is quite remote, very small.

“Clearly there are many thousands of aeroplanes flying around the world and so the chances of one of those aeroplanes having an infected person onboard is not zero.

“If somebody is onboard [with the virus] is the not symptomatic the chances of them spreading the infection is remote, possibly zero. Also it depends on where you sit.

“We know from previous outbreaks that with Sars, if you were sat on the same row, or the row in front or behind, then you might be at risk.

“So even if they were onboard, and they weren’t sitting actually close to you, your chances of picking up the virus are also very low.

”So it’s not zero, but it’s not sufficiently high that people need to be overly concerned.

He also said that he would happily travel to Hong Kong, adding: “If I was in Hong Kong now I would be very careful about washing my hands.

“If I saw people who were clearly unwell I would clearly keep my distance.

“Other than that I would be quite happy to go.”

The Foreign Office warns only against travel to mainland China, excluding Hong Kong and Macau.