‘Good chance’ that Greek and Spanish islands will be put on green list, says aviation expert

Malta, Finland and Slovakia should make the cut too, claims Robert Boyle

Green light? Chania on the Greek island of Crete, rated as low-risk for Covid by the Foreign Office (Simon Calder)

According to the latest data, there’s a “good chance” that Spanish and Greek holiday islands will be moved to the green list in the government’s review later this week, an aviation expert has claimed.

The former director of strategy at BA’s parent company International Airlines Group (IAG) and founder of GridPoint Consulting Limited, Robert Boyle, has predicted that Malta, Finland and Slovakia also have a clear case for going green.

On the flip-side, he expects Bahrain, Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago and Kuwait to turn red on the forthcoming update, expected on Thursday 3 June.

Looking at key destinations for UK travellers, Mr Boyle analysed countries’ case rates and testing rates.

Any country with a daily case rate of 71 per million or below is a potential for the next green list, he argues, provided the testing rate is also above two per thousand.

“Why did I choose 71 per million as a case rate threshold? It is the equivalent of the EU’s proposed threshold of 100 cases in a 14 day period per 100,000 population,” he wrote in a recent blog post.

“We don’t know whether the UK government is using that threshold, or something lower. So I’ve also shown the case rate that Portugal had when the government put it on the green list. So somewhere between the two lines is presumably an acceptable rate.”

Additional destinations that could go green if the UK’s Department for Transport (DfT) used the same threshold as the EU include Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Italy and Luxembourg.

The US is right on the upper limit of the EU cap, while Russia also meets the criteria – but “that is likely to fall foul of politics,” says Mr Boyle.

Only Finland, Malta and Slovakia are likely to make the green list if Portugal’s case rate when it was declared green is taken as the benchmark.

But Mr Boyle adds: “The government has also confirmed that it will look at the islands of Spain and Greece separately from the mainland.

“With case numbers lower in the islands, I do think there is a good chance that the Spanish and Greek islands will make it onto the green list.”

Purely based on infection rates, Mr Boyle assesses the red list too. The countries with the highest reported case rates – based on a seven-day average reported cases per million – that are currently classified as amber are Bahrain, Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago and Kuwait.

“Expect those to be added shortly” to the red list, writes Mr Boyle.

“My guess is that the politicians are carefully trying to craft the next set of announcements to throw a bone to the travel industry whilst also playing to the ‘securing our borders’ gallery,” he concludes.

“If, as I expect, they take a cautious approach to what gets added to the green list, there may be only three countries added, plus some islands.”

He adds: “Whenever a politician tells you that they are ‘following the science’, you can be sure they are ‘following the politics’ even more closely.”