‘The government needs to provide a playbook for living with Covid if UK aviation is ever to recover’

Every flight that doesn’t operate represents lost tourist income - and a lost opportunity for Britain’s exporters, writes Heathrow Airport chief John Holland-Kaye

Distant dream? Artist’s impression of the proposed third runway at Heathrow (Simon Calder)

To say that 2021 has been a really tough year is an understatement. Britain has endured another 12 months of life in limbo as we grapple with the pandemic. That uncertainty has also dominated the travel sector.

At this time last year, no one would have expected that we’d welcome fewer passengers in 2021 than we did in 2020 – but that’s exactly what happened. Lockdowns, changing travel restrictions and fears over variants meant travel plans were put on hold.

But we have reason to be optimistic that 2022 really will be the year where the travel sector turns the corner. We know more about Covid and how to protect ourselves from it now than we did at the start of the year. The incredible vaccine continues to provide strong protection and more and more people are being boosted every day. Countries across the world are adapting from rigid travel rules to more flexible protections.

Even as the current omicron wave dents confidence, we still expect 2022 passenger numbers to be around 45 million – double what we had in 2021.

To gear up for this recovery, businesses across the airport will need to hire between 10,000 and 20,000 people ahead of the summer travel peak. More check-in agents, security officers, engineers and baggage handlers will be needed to ensure passengers can get away on their journeys smoothly in the months ahead.

It is undoubtedly great news that the sector is planning for a brighter future, but we still have a long road ahead of us to recover

Securing these recruits, completing rigorous security checks and getting them trained up will be a significant logistical challenge taking several months. We are committed to working with our airport partners to deliver it, but these vacancies will act as a natural operational constraint on passenger numbers until they can be filled.

It is undoubtedly great news that the sector is planning for a brighter future, but we still have a long road ahead of us to recover. Our passenger numbers for next year may be more than this year, but they are still expected to be only around 57 per cent of what we welcomed in 2019, aligning closely with the forecast published by the airlines’ trade body, Iata, which predicts global passenger numbers next year will be about 60 per cent of 2019 levels.

Our forecasts so far in the pandemic have proved to be amongst the most accurate in the industry, but there is still room for significant downside with so many moving variables – our 2021 passenger numbers will be 10 per cent below what we forecast.

There is a complex web of restrictions in place today that inhibits travel across almost all of our route network. Ten per cent of our network – to some of the most important markets like China and Japan – remains completely closed. A further 10 per cent requires strict quarantine on arrival at their destination. The remainder requires some form of pre-departure and arrival testing.

This matters for Heathrow, for our airlines and for the jobs and livelihoods we support, but it matters too for UK plc. Heathrow is Britain’s gateway to the world, and every flight that doesn’t operate is lost tourist income and lost opportunity for Britain’s exporters.

The government response to omicron was swift. It shows that new travel requirements can come in overnight – catching families out or turning what would be a simple business trip into a two-week quarantine nightmare. The threat of never knowing what restrictions will be in place hangs over passengers and dents confidence to travel.

In 2021, we faced alpha, delta and omicron. How many more Greek letters will become everyday words before the end of 2022? The reality is that we simply don’t know and will be living with Covid for many years to come.

Until we can put the disease firmly behind us and ensure that travel restrictions are lifted at both ends of a route with passengers confident they will not be reimposed, demand for travel will be suppressed from pre-Covid highs and Britain’s economic recovery will be stunted.

What happens when the French decide to close our trade routes in a dispute over fishing, submarines or migrants?

What we want from government is a playbook for living with Covid. We support bringing in restrictions quickly, but they should be removed just as quickly – either when the threat is found to be less risky, or when the new variant becomes endemic in the UK, as is now the case.

If ministers remove the additional tests before Christmas, it will give Brits the confidence to book travel over New Year, when 20 per cent of all bookings are made. That will give the aviation sector the confidence to plan for a doubling of passenger numbers next year.

UK aviation has always provided skilled, high-quality jobs. Up to half of these have been lost as companies struggled to cut costs over the last two years, with minimal government support – unlike in the EU and US. Heathrow alone has lost £3.4bn and is still losing £3m every day.

If the government decides to keep restrictions and tests in place, it should create an aviation skills recovery fund to help the sector recruit and train people in anticipation of next summer’s peak. The last thing we need is businesses desperate to get back to global markets, tourists and students hoping to return and Brits unable to get away on their own summer holidays because airports and airlines don’t have enough people to operate safely.

Aviation is not just about holidays. It is about connecting all of Britain with the rest of the world. Long-haul planes from the UK’s hub airport, Heathrow, carry over 40 per cent of all non-EU exports and provide the UK’s trading routes with the growing markets in Asia, Africa and the Americas.

If those goods don’t go through Heathrow, they will go through rival hubs in Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt, leaving the UK’s trade routes dependent on its EU rivals. What happens when the French decide to close our trade routes in a dispute over fishing, submarines or migrants? As a strong, independent nation, the UK must control its trade routes through its own hub airport, Heathrow.

If we are going to come out of Covid with a strong economy, we need to work together with government to protect and rebuild our aviation sector. Together, we can make Global Britain a winner.

John Holland-Kaye has been chief executive of Heathrow Airport since 2014