Morocco, Jamaica and Aruba all at risk of moving to red list, says expert

Data analyst and Covid case-watcher Tim White tweeted his predictions

Morocco could join the red list this week, say experts (Getty Images/iStockphoto)

Morocco, Jamaica and the Caribbean island of Aruba all look likely to move from the amber list to the red list in this week’s review of the UK traffic light travel system, one expert has predicted.

Writing in several detailed Twitter threads between Thursday and today, data analyst and journalist Tim White listed notable rises and declines in the infection rates of various destinations, and made his predictions for countries that are likely to move between lists.

This week’s travel update is likely to happen this Wednesday 25 or Thursday 26 August.

“Any follower of mine must know I’ve been warning about Jamaica for a few weeks,” tweeted White earlier today.

“The island’s now taken measures to control the Covid-19 outbreak. I know a lot are predicting it stays amber, but sadly I think the positive test rates are just too high. It’s a very close call, but I think red.”

Looking at the figures across Africa, White commented: “Here are the six [countries] in Africa in most danger of being moved to red based purely on infection rates: Gambia, Djibouti, Morocco, Algeria, Nigeria, Ghana.”

“That doesn’t mean they will go red,” he added, “and some are small sample numbers so the first two may escape.”

For Morocco to stay on the amber list, White said, the JBS (Joint Biosecurity Committee) would have had to have seen the country’s Covid figures from yesterday or today, but past decisions suggested the decision will have been made earlier.

“I suspect they met at the weekend and came to a decision then, when Covid-19 rates were worse. And it would be brave to overlook 6 per cent infection rate among passengers. I predict red,” he commented.

The Dutch Caribbean island of Aruba also drew White’s eye with its current case numbers.

“The Caribbean is difficult to predict because [there are] so many small islands, but Aruba stood out with a very high percentage of travellers returning to the UK infected in the NHS data. It was a very small sample, but high rates back home mean I predict red,” tweeted White.

When a country switches from the amber to the red list, returning travellers to the UK must quarantine for 10 days in a hotel at their own expense, which has been estimated at £2,285 per adult.

White also predicted the following destinations would be pushed down to the red list: Montenegro, Uzbekistan, Kosovo and Kyrgyzstan.