Does the Brexit extension make a second referendum more likely?

Brexit Explained: The mandate from the 2016 vote is increasingly open to question as time passes and more new facts emerge about what leaving the EU really means

The European Union’s decision at its Brussels summit to delay Brexit until 31 October has made a Final Say referendum more likely for two reasons.

Technically, the period of extra time could be long enough to stage a public vote. Six months is regarded as the minimum amount of time needed for parliament to pass the necessary legislation, for the Electoral Commission to assess the precise question or questions, and for a campaign lasting at least 10 weeks.

In practice it might take longer, as the legislation would probably prove controversial. However, if preparations ran beyond 31 October, the 27 EU leaders would almost certainly agree to another extension to allow a Final Say vote to take place.

Politically, the Article 50 extension also makes a referendum more likely.

The mandate from the 2016 referendum is increasingly open to question as time passes and more new facts emerge about what Brexit means. There is a stronger case for young people who were under 18 in 2016 to have their say on the nation’s future.

If MPs do not use the extra time to break the Brexit deadlock, more of them might see a referendum as parliament’s equivalent of a penalty shoot-out, and the only way out of the maze.

Some 280 MPs voted for a confirmatory public vote on Theresa May’s deal earlier this month when it was defeated by just 12 votes.

Many MPs believe there would be a majority if May accepted her agreement would be subject to a confirmatory referendum, and whipped Tory MPs to support one. Even if Jeremy Corbyn did not order Labour MPs to back a people’s vote linked to May’s deal, many would do so in any case.

Corbyn has raised the question of a public vote in negotiations between the government and opposition aimed at finding a Brexit compromise. He is under strong pressure from grassroots Labour members and his MPs to make a referendum a red line in the talks.

However, he is unlikely to do so. Close allies fear that securing a referendum would damage Labour’s prospects in areas in the north and midlands, which voted Leave in 2016.

May remains implacably opposed to a referendum, arguing one would further divide the country and not heal divisions caused by the 2016 vote. However, she has conceded that another Commons vote on a referendum is likely, as MPs could table an amendment to the (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill, which would ratify any deal with the EU.

That would offer MPs their best chance to date of securing a confirmatory referendum. If the impasse continues, there could be an even better opportunity in the run-up to the 31 October deadline, especially if May has departed and her successor is urging a no-deal exit.

Either way, the prospects of a Final Say referendum are growing.

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