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The only people who can take the Government to task over Brexit are the business lobby

Privately business leaders are well aware that it will end up a god-awful mess in a best-case scenario and an absolute catastrophe if the worst happens

James Moore
Tuesday 31 January 2017 18:22 GMT
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The economic shock expected to result from the vote in favour of Brexit didn’t occur - but it is coming
The economic shock expected to result from the vote in favour of Brexit didn’t occur - but it is coming (AFP/Getty)

The EU referendum posed a simple question: In or out of the European Union. Ever since, the Government has falsely sought to portray what happens next as simple. Anyone who dares to question this fantasy is shouted down as a Remoaner, or branded an opponent of democracy who doesn’t trust the British people.

The Government’s attempt to strangle any and all debate hasn’t proved to be entirely successful. For a start, its original intention to do everything behind closed doors and present whatever emerged as a fait accompli has been ruled illegal. It is that which has led to the current two-day House of Commons debate ahead of a Parliamentary vote authorising the Prime Minister to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

Unfortunately, while she should be commended for her action, the debate she forced the Government to allow elicited more heat than light, particularly as regards the economy and the UK’s future trade relations, about which there are profound questions.

From the City’s financial titans, to small widget-makers in the Midlands that export to Germany, businesses that have trading relations with Europe will suffer as a result of the hardline stance taken by the May Government toward Brexit.

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One reason that the opposition to this has been more tepid than it ought to be is that the economic shock expected to result from the vote in favour of Brexit didn’t occur.

There was a brief wobble, and the pound weakened considerably. But then the UK economy picked itself up and performed well enough that Brexiteers have been able to brush aside any lingering concerns and imbalances that economists (boo!) have pointed to.

This has encouraged a dangerous complacency in some business leaders. Those for whom worries remain have typically chosen to adopt the approach the Government favours for them: they’ve stuck their fingers in their ears and said la la la in response to warnings.

Those businesses that trade with Europe are in for a nasty shock in a couple of years, even if Europe decides not to play rough.

Unfortunately, that is something it might very well do, given that it needs to show other reluctant members that leaving isn’t a bed of roses. The snarling triumphalism and aggression exhibited even by liberal(ish) Leavers is scarcely an encouragement to play nice.

Brexiteers keep repeating that it will hurt Europe too if it chooses not to toe their line. The problem is it will hurt the UK more.

As for the notion that other trade deals will fall from the sky like confetti? Ken Clarke likened that to Alice In Wonderland because a fairy story is what it is. Trade deals are complicated, difficult and take time. Even if people were queuing up to sign them, as Boris Johnson and others have claimed, it will be years before the bus finally arrives.

The fact remains that these issues need raising and debating before it is too late. Part of the reason that Brexiteers are so fond of using the referendum as a bludgeon in an attempt to silence debate is that they have no answers. That cannot be allowed to continue.

If there is any group that can get through to the Conservative Party it is the business lobby. Unfortunately the silence from it has been deafening.

The Brexiteers preferred option for their opponents is also the easiest one: it is for them to keep quiet and fall back on the excuse of “respecting the result of the referendum” and the “will of the British people” while promising to work hard to “make the best of it”.

Lots of business leaders have resorted to this in public. Privately they are well aware that it will end up a god-awful mess in a best-case scenario and an absolute catastrophe if the worst happens.

That has to change. Businesses don’t necessarily have to state that Brexit is a thoroughly bad idea, even though it is. But they do need to raise the fact that the Government’s current approach to it will destroy jobs, harm the UK’s economic prospects and make everyone poorer.

They need to argue for the least worst option. So do others, by the way.

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