Theresa May’s Brexit coup woes aren’t quite over – she’s still got the DUP to contend with

The DUP’s threat of voting against the prime minister’s Brexit agreement was the most immediate headache for May as the cabinet met today, and it probably won’t end any time soon

Theresa May can be forgiven a few moments of schadenfreude after the attempted coup by hardline Brexiteers in the European Research Group (ERG) fizzled out. Since last Thursday, they have repeatedly assured us they had the necessary 48 Tory MPs to trigger a vote of confidence in May as party leader.

But it hasn’t happened, and at a press conference today, they had to fend off questions about looking like Dad’s Army.

If May could chose her enemies, she would surely choose the ERG. Her often shambolic and indecisive premiership looks positively strong and stable compared to this rabble.

The ERG’s younger generation – its chair Jacob Rees-Mogg and his deputy Steve Baker – failed to persuade an old guard including Sir Bernard Jenkin and Owen Paterson to join them. In fact, the older heads were wiser. Rees-Mogg tried to hide his embarrassment by warning that May would lead the Tories into the next general election unless she is removed now.

In fact, in a confidence vote this week, May would win the necessary 158 votes (a majority of the 315 Tory MPs). Under Tory rules, she could not then be challenged for another 12 months. So Eurosceptics would have been unable to oust her if, as everyone at Westminster expects, she loses next month’s crucial Commons vote on her Brexit deal.

Their best hope of toppling May at that point would be cabinet ministers resigning, but others would queue up to take their place. A backbench delegation in grey suits might ask May to stand down, but she would probably give them her death stare.

A different prime minister would feel honour-bound to resign after defeat on such a flagship policy. But May would want to carry on, not to cling to power but in the belief she was still the best person to steady the ship.

By delaying a confidence vote until after the Commons decision, May’s critics could use the Tory rulebook rather than informal pressure she could rebuff. They only have one shot, and have a much better chance of mustering 158 votes after her deal has been rejected than they have now. The case for a fresh start under a new leader would be strong after May’s strategy had failed.

Crucially, the nuclear option of a confidence vote would disrupt the government’s strategy. Some ministers admit the first Commons vote on the deal will be lost, and are already planning a second one, probably in January. Their hope is that a plunging pound and stock market, and the looming threat of a no-deal exit in March, would pressurise enough Tory and Labour MPs to switch sides and back the deal if the EU tweaked it. “May will have to lose in order to win,” said one Tory Eurosceptic who fears the deal will pass second time.

While the EU is bound to dismiss the idea of improving the deal for now, things would be different after a Commons rejection; the EU also wants to avoid no deal, and so might tweak the backstop to prevent a hard Irish border, and the statement that its “single customs territory” would form the basis of the long-term trade agreement.

For all her faults, May at least now has a plan; her internal opponents do not. But she cannot enjoy a celebratory whisky yet, and might soon need one for other purposes. A confidence vote this week was never going to be her moment of maximum danger. This was, and remains, next month’s Commons vote on the deal. Some 54 Tories have opposed it by backing the StandUp4Brexit campaign.

Between five and 10 pro-European Tories will vote against it. Ominously, the 10 Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) MPs said today they would vote against it too, after firing a warning shot by refusing to support the government last night on the Finance Bill. (Memo to ERG: this is how to ambush – use the weapon of surprise, rather than announce your coup in advance and give the whips time to head it off). So even if only 20 Tory Eurosceptics and five pro-EU Tories voted against the deal, May would need the votes of about 35 Labour MPs. There is little sign of that.

The DUP’s move was the most immediate headache for May as the cabinet met today. It discussed technological solutions to avoid a hard border. That keeps some Eurosceptics onside but, as such technology does not yet exist, the EU will not dilute the proposed backstop.

The DUP hopes that plans for a different regulatory regime in Northern Ireland to the rest of the UK can be removed from the withdrawal agreement, but it seems too late now. So the DUP’s “confidence and supply” agreement with the Tories looks likely to end with the vote on the deal, with huge implications. The DUP won’t back Labour when it calls for a general election as it will not risk a Corbyn government. But the end of the agreement would leave the Tories unable to run a functioning government.

May might have seen off Dad’s Army, but is still surrounded by hostile forces, and her real battle is yet to come.