Further signs of Lebanon's political decay in wake of Hariri killing

Even before the UN Security Council chooses an international commission to investigate the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri, Syria's best friends in the Lebanese security service are beginning to fall off their perches. Given the verdict of the UN's original fact-finding mission into the killing - it accused Lebanese investigators of "gross negligence, possibly accompanied by criminal actions" - most Lebanese drew one conclusion: about time.

First came the chief judge in the official Lebanese murder enquiry, Michel Abu Arraj, who last week mysteriously announced that he was exhausted, adding that he felt it necessary to resign "because of the atmosphere of scepticism surrounding the investigation." Then came news that General Raymond Azar, the powerful head of Lebanese military intelligence, has decided to take a months "leave of absence" amid the political opposition's continued demand for his resignation and that of five of his colleagues.

And now General Ali Haj, the head of the Lebanese Internal Security Forces, is expected to follow Azarõs example. Haj it was who ordered his men to move the bombed-out remains of Mr Hariri's convoy from the scene of the crime just before midnight on February 14th, the day of the assassination. In the words of Peter FitzGerald, the deputy Irish Garda commissioner who headed the UN Mission, this decision prevented "any ballistic analysis, explosive analysis and evidence gathering at the scene." General Haj was once a member of Mr Hariri's security detail - but was redeployed after the former prime minister concluded that he was passing information to the Syrian security authorities in Beirut.

Even President Lahoud, Syria's most faithful friend in Lebanon, now supports - or says he supports - a full international investigation of the Hariri murder. Thus is the pendulum slowly swinging in the direction of the political opposition.

Or so it seems.

The resignation - for the second time in a month - of Prime Minister Omar Karami is a further sign of Lebanon's political decay. Unable to find a single opponent of Syria prepared to serve in a coalition government, he refused to lead a cabinet of "one colour" and preferred to step down in ignominy. But without a prime minister, it is doubtful if national elections could be held in May - which would preserve the present Lebanese parliament which is loaded with Syrian supporters.

Hizballah is still refusing to move from its position of support for Syria, which means that tens of thousands of Shia Muslims remain outside the Lebanese opposition. And the three night-time bombs which have exploded in commercial districts of east Beirut are surely not the only ones that have been prepared for the coming weeks. By targeting the eastern, largely Christian suburbs of the city - where opposition to Syria is strongest - there appears to be a plan to provoke the Maronite community against Lebanese Muslims. So far, it has proved fruitless. But if that is the case, so the Lebanese argue, surely the agents provocateurs will next time use car bombs in crowded streets. Mercifully the Sunni Muslims, Druze and Christians had created their anti-Syrian alliance before Hariri's murder; had they tried to do so in its aftermath, they may well have failed.