The only way to limit global warming to 1.5C… according to the Oxford professor behind ‘net zero’

It’s easy to shout ‘Just Stop Oil’, says Myles Allen – but it won’t just happen, and especially not quickly enough to make a difference. Which is why there’s a new buzzword emerging from Cop28 – ‘abatement’

A ‘Just Stop Oil’ protester interrupts the World Snooker Championship in Sheffield in April (PA Wire)

After all the “last chances” to keep 1.5 alive, you’d be forgiven for thinking the global warming threshold agreed in Paris eight years ago must surely be dead by now.

But the reality is, with Cop28 climate talks underway, the end of fossil-fuel-driven global warming is in sight – but only if, in the words of the conference president Sultan Al Jaber, we are “laser-focussed on phasing out fossil-fuel emissions”.

That may not be a popular approach right now – to stop fossil fuels from causing further global warming before we stop using fossil fuels – but it is going to be a major topic of debate in the UAE in the coming days. Because, if we do not reach agreement on this, then 1.5 will most definitely be dead.

We are going to generate more carbon dioxide than we can dump in the atmosphere and still limit warming to anywhere near 1.5C. To pretend otherwise is, dare I say it, denial. So, as well as reducing the rate of fossil fuel use, we have to scale up safe and permanent carbon dioxide disposal. 

Cop28 could be a pivotal moment – precisely because it is happening right in the heart of oil and gas country. The trouble is, as so often happens in negotiations, the perfect (or what is seen as perfect) is the enemy of the good. As slogans go, “Just Stop Oil” is easy to shout, but it cannot just happen, it cannot happen soon – and, crucially, it cannot happen soon justly. 

Even if we in the UK could phase out our fossil fuel use by 2050 – stopping all shipping and aviation, completely transforming diet, heating and transport systems – it would be completely unfair to demand developing countries to do the same. Particularly those who, unlike us, have yet to benefit from their fossil fuel reserves. And so temperatures would continue to rise. 

Much less catchy a slogan than “phase out fossil fuels” is “phase out unabated fossil fuels” – that is, those sources whose whose planet-warming emissions are allowed to enter the atmosphere, rather than be captured for processing through exising technologies. And the phasing-out of unabated fossil fuels could be done, and, crucially, in time to keep 1.5 alive.

However, it is only useful if the definition of abated fossil fuels is consistent with the physics of climate change and the goals of the Paris Agreement. Which is why, as director of the Oxford Net Zero initiative, I am hosting a fringe event at Cop28 on precisely this topic on Tuesday. 

For me, 100 per cent abatement can only mean the capturing of one tonne of carbon dioxide for every tonne generated by any continued fossil fuel use. And, crucially, it also means permanently disposing of it, which, right now, means underground, mostly in the porous rocks found in depleted oil and gas fields. We must make polluters responsible for removing their carbon emissions from the air.

This does not mean to say that we should give up on phasing down the use of fossil fuels. Genuine abatement is both hard and expensive. Many current uses of fossil fuels make little sense, and make even less sense if we include the cost of 100 per cent carbon dioxide disposal. So we must rapidly switch to renewable forms of energy and continue promoting other solutions, such as restoring and protecting nature. We need all of these approaches – but we also need to stop fossil fuels from causing global warming.

Abatement is going to be a key word to come out of Cop28 – and, if we are to keep 1.5 alive, environmentalists must embrace it. Critics will say it is not possible, that carbon-capture technology is not ready. They are wrong. It has been ready for years. It just suits the oil and gas industry to say they need a bit more time (and subsidies) to develop it.

Meeting our climate goals is actually very simple. By mid-century, no one should still be buying, selling or using anything that contributes to global warming. So, if you’re in the business of doing just that, we need to see your plan to stop – by fixing the products, not just tiptoeing away from the mess. Which means safe and permanent disposal of all the generated carbon dioxide.

It’s easy to shout “Just Stop Oil” – but at Cop28, it’s time to start chanting “Fix Our Fuels”.

Myles Allen is professor of geosystem science in the School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, and director of Oxford Net Zero