Yes, Trump 2.0 will reshape the world – but not in the ways you might think

During his first term, the president didn’t know his way around Washington, writes Jon Sopel. But this time is different. This time, he knows exactly what he’s doing – and how to do it

As always with Donald Trump, caricature is the easy route. It takes some chutzpah and self regard to deliver a line like “I was saved by God to Make America Great Again”.

Some of the poking in the eye of his opponents felt gratuitous. The “drill, baby, drill” message was not exactly the soaring rhetoric of a JFK or Reagan – or any number of predecessors. There were times in the Rotunda during his inaugural address that it felt more like a Trump rally, but with slightly less rambling. Then there was Elon Musk’s “Nazi salute”.

And, frankly, the way Trump spoke later about the pardoning of those imprisoned for the attempted insurrection on January 6 was reprehensible. These were people who stormed the Capitol, injuring police officers along the way, and were then found guilty in courts of law. To keep calling them the “J6 hostages” – as he did – as though they were on par with the three Israelis who were kidnapped on 7 October and freed from the tunnels of Gaza a couple of days ago is grotesque and offensive.

But the speech needs to be seen in its wider context.

Trump has won a second term in one of the greatest political comebacks of all time, and having won the argument with Kamala Harris decisively in November, he has an agenda – and he is in a hurry to fulfil it.

This is in marked contrast to eight years ago, with the “American carnage” speech, that led George W Bush to whisper to Michelle Obama: “That’s some weird s***.” And sure, there has been commentary that this was the Mark 2 version. But there are some important differences.

When Trump won in 2016, he knew nothing about how Washington worked and had no idea who he should appoint to his administration. He took recommendations from people he didn’t much like. And in fairness, a lot of them didn’t much like him.

It was all pretty clueless stuff. There was an ineptitude in execution last time that I suspect will be different today. As one American commentator put it: “The velociraptors have now worked out how to open the doors.”

The slew of executive orders that Trump foreshadowed in his inaugural address have been worked through; his Sharpie pen is going to have an exhausting few days as he signs order after order. He means business.

A lot of Americans will hate it. One Democrat friend told me over the weekend that he would be avoiding the TV. Trump’s determination to wind the clock back on a lot of the progressive agenda was there for all to see. The war on “woke” is just beginning.

But that was one of the issues that propelled him to the presidency. His brutally sharp TV ad that ran every Saturday when college football was being played, with the tagline “Kamala Harris is for they/them; President Trump is for YOU”, hit home. His messaging on the economy and immigration were the two other major planks of his victory.

So making good on the promises he made on the campaign trail is what we expect of politicians. If he had abandoned them post-election then he would – rightly – be accused of a cynical betrayal.

And before people get carried away with accusations of divisiveness, there was a lot that was strikingly inclusive. He was delivering his address on Martin Luther King Day and he pledged to make MLK’s dream come true. He also recognised the support that he had from Latinos, from auto workers, the working class, the cities and the rural areas, and he pledged to govern for all Americans.

There was almost a misty-eyed romanticism about bringing back the mentality of the frontiersmen who risked everything to open up America, and who went west. Trump spoke about the dreams that parents have for their children and the dreams the children have for their futures. He promised to stand by them. I can see that playing well across the US.

Americans overuse the term “inflection point”. But in the sweep of America’s post-Second World War settlement, this feels like such a moment. Roosevelt gave Americans the New Deal in the 1930s and those policies were built upon by Kennedy and LBJ in the 1960s. The next inflection point came with Reagan (as it did with Thatcher in the UK) when the new economic orthodoxy of monetarism, a smaller state and lower taxes took hold.

And now we have Trump 2.0. It will be more economically nationalist, more nativist. It will see America eschewing the role of a global police force. In Trump 1.0 this was purely rhetorical; now it might become real. And this seems to be the way the wind is blowing across much of the continent of Europe too. The politics of centre-right and centre-left is in retreat.

Now, of course, Trump might fail. Will tariffs have the effect that he believes? Might the rest of the world fight back? Will he find it that easy to deport millions of undocumented migrants? The legal challenges will come thick and fast. And what about Nato? These are big-ticket items.

There are fascinating unanswered questions about which direction he will go on certain key policy areas. The Rotunda was full of the billionaires who bankrolled him, but it was a lot of the more economically disadvantaged who won him the election – so which way does he go on fiscal policy? Help them or help those who are already loaded?

The Big Mac-loving president wants Robert F Kennedy Jr to be his health secretary – but RFK is determined to take on the makers of ultra-processed foods, who he blames for the appalling obesity crisis in the US. The food manufacturers will want to fight back.

There are those within Maga who want to stop all foreigners coming into the country. But Elon Musk is fighting that, saying if the US doesn’t attract the most skilled workers from overseas then America won’t be great again.

Trump might fail. There could be setbacks and humiliation. There will be hyperbole and narcissism. But let’s not be glib, smug or dismissive. This presidency is going to matter – and might well reshape the way we see the world.