The most likely outcome of the encounter between Trump and Netanyahu? More violence

Israel’s PM will be the first head of government to meet with the new US president in the Oval Office. But this tête-à-tête offers little prospect for hope, warns World Affairs Editor Sam Kiley

Benjamin Netanyahu may be preparing himself for the high honour of being the first head of government to meet with Donald Trump in the Oval Office, but it exposes a dilemma that has been described as a “Bibi Sandwich”.

On one side, Israel’s prime minister apparently risks political turmoil at home over the Gaza ceasefire deal. In Washington, his host – the new US president – wants to see the deal hold and all hostages released from Hamas captivity.

For Netanyahu, however, this should be an easy bite to swallow. But there is no chance of it producing a recipe for long term peace.

Belalel Smotrich, Israel’s finance minister and leader of the National Religious Party-Religious Zionism far right group, previously threatened to leave the Netanyahu coalition if Israel did not go back to war against Hamas. He opposed the ceasefire, claiming it endangered Israeli security and stopped Israel from achieving its war goals. It was reported that he withdrew this threat last week.

In any case, Netanyahu can – and probably will – ignore him because he has a more faithful supporter in the White House who has repeatedly supported Smotrich’s demands that Gaza be “cleaned out” of most of its Palestinian population: Trump.

Netanyahu’s negotiating team was heading for Qatar as he was prepping for his meeting with Trump. They are hoping to continue with the second phase in Gaza’s ceasefire which could lead to the release of all hostages – and hundreds of Palestinians in Israeli jails.

The talks have been undermined by parades by Hamas brandishing their weapons in a show of military and political force, demonstrating that the militant group is far from vanquished in Gaza.

Trump has agreed an extra $1bn in arms sales to Israel, including 2,000lb bombs. This had been held back by the Biden administration after the killing of more than 47,000 Gazans (according to Palestinian health officials) in Israel’s bombardment of the enclave, triggered by Hamas-led attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023 that left 1,200 dead and 250 hostage.

Israel’s other conflicts have been less controversial. Few nations around the globe have rued the destruction of Hezbollah’s military in Lebanon and its bases in Syria. Few have criticised Israel’s air strikes against Iran in retaliation for missile attacks, or indeed the bombing of Houthi targets in Yemen by Israel’s air force.

It’s likely that Trump will give Netanyahu a helpful wink of support if he signals that Israel may next go after Iran’s alleged nuclear programme. Recent reports in the US media suggest that Tehran may be able to make a primitive nuclear weapon in months, or even weeks.

Iran’s support for Russia with missiles and drones during its invasion of Ukraine has meant that any attack on its military infrastructure would be welcomed in most western capitals.

Trump wants to build on what he sees as the diplomatic triumph of his last presidency – the signing of the Abraham Accords. The normalisation of relations between the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco were hailed as breakthroughs that reshaped the Middle East and began to settle Israel into its body politic.

But Saudi Arabia held back. The kingdom has maintained that formal relations with Israel will depend on a credible route towards a viable Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza.

Netanyahu has repeatedly said that there’s no chance of a Palestinian state and his own Likud Party insists that all of the West Bank, which is home to 2.5m Palestinians – and was captured in 1967 – must be sovereign Israeli territory.

Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, was his point-man on the Abraham Accords. Kushner has since built a vast business with Saudi investors. The US president clearly hopes to build on these close relationships to bring Saudi Arabia in.

Trump has no real leverage over Netanyahu because the US president believes so deeply in both the right-wing Israeli cause – and its methods. There will be no concession on a resumption of talks over a future Palestinian state.

Hamas is also opposed to the very existence of Israel and therefore a two-state solution – and has thrived as that prospect has looked increasingly dim. There is nothing that Palestinians will see as hopeful emerging from the Oval Office meeting. The only thing to come out of it will be more violence.