Why the prospect of a Nobel Peace Prize for Donald Trump is so ridiculous

Even as a ceasefire comes into effect, the US president’s proposal to end the war in Gaza has seemed outlandish and unlikely for so long – if he truly pulls this off, he can have all the vainglorious prizes he wants, says Sean O’Grady

Never knowingly understated, Donald Trump presented his 20-point Gaza peace plan as though it were a 20-storey block of the most expensive apartments ever built: his most ambitious real-estate project yet, something the whole world has begged him for – and as though he was the only one who could build it.

And now Israeli troops are beginning their withdrawal to an agreed line in Gaza after the government ratified a fragile ceasefire agreement overnight.

Peace is, in the words of Trump, after “thousands of years” of conflict, “beyond very close”. He said as he made the announcement that it was “a big, big day, a beautiful day”, and “potentially one of the greatest days ever in civilisation”.

With a faux modesty that only he can bring to any project, Trump has already declared he would chair something called the “Board of Peace”, the first time an American president has appointed themselves chair of a non-existent entity: “It will be headed by a gentleman known as President Donald J Trump of the United States... That’s just what I want, there’s some more work to do. But it’s so important that I’m willing to do it.”

Yet to be fair, it is historic, or at least potentially so. No previous president, not even Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton, has launched an initiative on this scale, in such unpromising circumstances, with any chance of success. Trump has indeed forged a formidable coalition of nations and people to work towards it, including Tony Blair, who, as has often been said, possesses perhaps the wrong kind of extensive experience of conflict in the region.

Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu agree on a peace plan for Gaza: ‘One of the great days in the history of civilisation’ (AP)

Blair’s enemies will never tire of calling him a “war criminal” over the admittedly illegal war in Iraq, and he will never apologise for ridding that country, and the world, of Saddam Hussein. None of that will get in the way of the work he needs to do now to broker peace, as a UN-US-EU-Russia envoy in the Middle East and elsewhere. In due course, he and Trump – or, more fairly, all the no doubt illustrious members of the proposed Board of Peace – may be in line for the Nobel Peace Prize. Which, in light of their roles in the destabilisation of the region over the last two decades, is a frankly ridiculous prospect.

However, like Trump himself, we are getting way, way, ahead of ourselves.

The Board of Peace hasn’t even been officially named, and reports say that Hamas hasn’t had sight of the plan (though its leaders can read most of it on the internet). It could all turn out to be an elaborate way of Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu justifying the completion of the destruction of Gaza, if not the entire Palestinian entity. If Hamas rejects the plan – or, as Netanyahu added, tries to mess around with it – then Israel will have the full support of the United States to “finish the job”.

Although Trump spoke wistfully about getting Hamas’s principal sponsor, Iran, on board, Iran has not signed up to the plan – and neither, for that matter, has Hezbollah. Hamas is being asked to accept disarmament, release the Israeli hostages, renounce all claims to the governance of Gaza, and basically become a conventional democratic political entity. Or – more palatable to the Israelis – to disappear.

But as we have seen, Hamas doesn’t actually care how many Palestinians are killed by the bombings and the famine, which means that using the suffering of civilians in Gaza to pressure Hamas won’t work. We know that because it hasn’t worked at any point since 7 October 2023, when the group committed its atrocities in a cynical, but successful, bid to make Israel go to war.

Syria also remains uncommitted, while the Houthi rebels in Yemen are a constant source of provocation. The Palestinian Authority itself, along with President Abbas, has not yet been given the status in the process that it deserves.

None of Tony Blair’s history will get in the way of the work he needs to do now to broker peace (AP)

The other thing about any peace process – Northern Ireland, the former Yugoslavia, central Africa – is that it has to have sufficient momentum and support to withstand suicide bombers, assassinations, and, indeed, atrocities and war crimes along the way. If one person in a suicide vest in Jerusalem can blow up the Trump peace plan, because the other parties will immediately react and escalate, then it will go nowhere. The resolve of all concerned will be sorely tested.

Having said all that, like every other peace plan ever, it’s the only one anyone has got, and it deserves support, even from the Blair-haters and the never-Trumpers. There is some cause for hope. Despite the blank cheque Trump gave Netanyahu – and the Israeli prime minister’s sycophantic words about the US president being Israel’s best friend ever – Trump is tiring of his old friend Bibi. Israel is not, in fact, winning its war, and it is getting in the way of Trump’s diplomatic, economic and personal ambitions in the rich Gulf states. That, presumably, is why he made Netanyahu put in the call to the prime minister of Qatar to apologise for the missile attack on the Hamas negotiating team who were in that country as guests of the government. Only Trump could have pulled that off.

The domestic political situation in Israel, and Netanyahu’s unpopularity, will also help the process, and the Israeli commanders will be relieved that they will no longer be forced to follow orders they don’t believe in. Egypt and Jordan count for much, and if the fighting in Gaza had continued, they would have had to review their long-established peace treaties with Israel.

We all know that Trump is a monster, unworthy of the office he holds – and that he himself, through his catastrophic misjudgement of Vladimir Putin, has presented a substantial threat to the peace and security of the West. But on this, he, Blair and the rest of the team have commanded our respect, and widespread backing, and they can have all the vainglorious prizes they want.

Above all, Trump’s horrendous plan to expel the Palestinians from Gaza, and turn part of their homeland into a beach resort, has been abandoned and superseded. That alone makes it a big, beautiful day.